Wheat price remains close to $5 on the Tuesday market
Wheat Market Update: August 2025
As the summer harvest season approaches its end, the wheat market is showing a mix of price trends and harvest progress for different wheat types.
Winter Wheat (Hard Red Winter - HRW): The 2025/26 HRW wheat harvest is mostly complete in Texas to Nebraska, with other states reporting 40% to 89% completion as of mid-August. The overall winter wheat harvest is 98% complete as of August 26, slightly behind the average pace. USDA production estimates place winter wheat at about 1.93 billion bushels, a slight decrease from last year.
Spring Wheat (Minneapolis - HRS): The spring wheat harvest is about 53% complete as of August 26, slightly behind the 54% five-year average. Approximately 49% of the crop is rated good/excellent, down 1% from the last report.
Soft Red Winter Wheat (CBT): Futures prices are up 4 to 5 cents recently, indicating a modest bullish premium in that market.
Hard Red Winter Wheat (KC): Futures prices are fractionally mixed, showing some indecision or balancing between supply/demand.
Minneapolis Spring Wheat: Futures are trading down 1 to 4 cents at midday, suggesting some bearish pressure or profit-taking.
European Union Soft Wheat: Exports for EU soft wheat from July 1 to August 24 are at 2.18 million metric tons, which lags substantially behind last year’s 4.15 million metric tons for the same period.
According to the USDA WASDE report, U.S. wheat supplies for 2025/26 are projected to be slightly tighter, with production around 1.927 billion bushels, a small decrease from the previous year. Domestic use is expected to be reduced, but higher exports are forecasted. Ending stocks are forecast to be smaller. The yield per harvested acre is forecast at about 52.7 bushels, consistent with recent years.
Weather concerns and international factors are influencing the wheat market. Significant rain is expected in the Southern Plains, which could impact late harvest or quality. Increased Russian wheat production and exports could exert pressure on prices.
Market Summary (late August 2025):
| Wheat Type | Harvest Progress | Price Trend (Futures basis) | Production/Exports Notes | |----------------------|---------------------------|---------------------------------------|-------------------------------------------------| | Hard Red Winter (KC) | 40% to 100% by state (mostly done in TX to NE) | Mixed; fractionally up/down | 1.93 billion bushels; exports rising | | Soft Red Winter (CBT) | Winter harvest ~98% complete | Up 4-5 cents | Slightly down production | | Spring Wheat (Minneapolis) | 53% harvested (below average) | Down 1-4 cents | 49% good/excellent crop rating, steady conditions | | EU Soft Wheat | N/A (reported exports) | Not quoted here | July-Aug exports lagging behind last year’s |
In conclusion, the wheat markets are showing mostly stable prices with small differentials across types. The harvest is nearing completion for winter wheat and halfway done for spring wheat, with some export and production changes influencing market sentiment. For more information, please view the article's Disclosure Policy here.
As of the date of publication, Austin Schroeder did not have positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article.
Current Futures Prices (late August 2025):
- September MPLS spring wheat is trading with fractional gains across the front months.
- The European Commission estimates the EU soft wheat exports at 1.78 MMT from July 1 to August 17, less than half of the same period last year.
- CBT soft red wheat futures are 4 to 5 cents lower on the day.
- Sep 25 KCBT Hard Red Winter Wheat is at $5.00, down 6 1/4 cents.
- Conditions for spring wheat are listed at 50% good/excellent, up 1%.
- Sep 25 CBOT Wheat is at $4.98 1/4, down 4 1/2 cents.
- Dec 25 CBOT Wheat is at $5.20 1/4, down 4 3/4 cents.
The wheat complex is mostly lower on Tuesday, with some exceptions.
The Brugler500 index for spring wheat is back up 2 points at 333.
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