Unveiling the Deceitful Facts Shrouding Manchester City's Disastrous Campaign
The saying 'lies, lies, and statistics' coined by American author Mark Twain, signifies how figures can be manipulated to bolster a weak argument.
This concept resonates with the 'traditional football enthusiasts'—the traditional commentators and ex-soccer players who are renowned for criticizing football's data revolution.
However, the truth is that those who have wholeheartedly embraced statistics in soccer have outperformed those who have not.
Unpopular teams such as Brentford, Brighton, and Hove Albion have utilized the statistical ignorance prevalent in the world's most popular sport to their advantage, racking up remarkable success. By investing in advanced data models, they have unearthed talent that went unnoticed by other teams and made significant profits from their success in the transfer market.
The 'traditional football enthusiasts' beliefs persist because every soccer game carries its unique mood, generating a narrative that contradicts the statistics. Frequently, these sentiments hold more weight than the story conveyed by the stats.
It might seem irrational and unquantifiable, but the excitement of 50,000 spectators cheering on a team on a winning streak creates a perception that the performance on the field is far more powerful than it actually is. For spectators, these feelings create an engaging narrative.
In soccer, the phrase 'lies, lies, and statistics' can be paraphrased as 'vibes, damn vibes, and statistics.'
The passionate atmosphere of live soccer explains why some of the most dedicated data analysts stop watching the action itself, fearing that it may distort the raw numerical narrative.
One individual who adheres to this philosophy is physicist Ian Graham, who served as Liverpool FC's director of research and spearheaded a data revolution at the club.
A famous tale in soccer analytics revolves around Graham's 2015 meeting with Jurgen Klopp, a new coach Graham had advocated for the club. Although he left as a club legend in 2024, when Klopp first arrived at Anfield nine years earlier, the team had a questionable reputation.
Although Klopp led Borussia Dortmund to consecutive Bundesliga titles and reached a Champions League final in his last stint in Northern Germany, his final season in Northern Germany was disastrous. Dortmund struggled to win games and was at the bottom of the table midway through the season.
During a meeting in Merseyside, Graham explained to Klopp how the data demonstrated that, contrary to appearances, Dortmund remained the second-best team in the league. He also elaborated on the eight worst matches, detailing how unfortunate Klopp's team had been to lose.
Klopp was amazed by Graham's ability to express his sense of injustice following a string of poor results that ought to have had a different outcome.
Similarly, a situation is currently unfolding in North West England.
Top of the Expected Goals Table
Four-time Premier League champions Manchester City is experiencing a poor run of form and has slipped to seventh place in the table. According to the statistics, however, the team's underlying numerical performance is not significantly different from that of the past title-winning campaign.
Manchester City holds the top spot regarding expected goals [xG]—a metric that ranks opportunities based on their statistical likelihood of being converted. In layman's terms, teams and players performing harder chances surpass their xG, while teams missing easier opportunities underperform their expected goals.
While in previous years, Manchester City had been the former champion, it is certainly the latter this year.
Open-source data shows that City is third (-0.29) behind the actual goals scored by the team. In contrast, league leaders Liverpool (+0.57) are almost two-thirds ahead of their expected goals scored.
While these disparities may seem minor, when spread over 18 games, they become significant, especially in soccer, a low-scoring sport where single goals have a substantial impact.
Manchester City's predicament is that it has lost six games and drawn twice in its last 11 matches. Despite losses to Brighton and Hove Albion or Manchester United by a single goal in games where chances created should have provided the team with a comfortable lead, the outcome of the game ultimately determines the narrative.
When pundits and fans analyze matches, missed opportunities and bad luck crumble if not tied to some controversial moment that can be considered an injustice.
As Graham put it for an article in the Guardian, "Outcome bias is vivid. What actually happens is vivid, and it's against human nature to consider what might have happened."
"People love narrative," he added.
For these reasons and many more, Manchester City manager Pep Guardiola isn't blaming anyone for the team's poor form.
"I'd prefer it if we weren't in this situation, but I'm trying to stay as calm as possible," Guardiola said prior to the clash against Leicester City.
"I don't have it in my education to start complaining, to point fingers. It's happened, it's life, it's football, so let's try it again. That's why we've had success: because it was never enough. Every three days, it was a game, and win, win, win for many, many years. Now we have to do the same, and the results aren't good."
"I will not give up. I want to be here," he added.
"I want to do it, and with the situation we [are in], I have to do it. I don't want to disappoint the people who love this place—the club, the fans, and the people who work here. I think all of us in our jobs want to please the people, and it's undeniable."
The Catalan leader has had a philosophical approach towards the current slump, prompting detractors to reconsider the remarkable consistency we witnessed prior to this. Regrettably, few are inclined to accept this challenge, as chronicling a decline holds more intrigue than commemorating an unshaken dynasty.
In brief, Guardiola mentioned to the press that the main hindrance behind Manchester City's recent slide is the high number of key players succumbing to injuries.
It's indisputable that Manchester City is experiencing an unsettling atmosphere at the moment. In such situations, it may be beneficial for the coach to bear in mind that "vibes, darned vibes, and statistics" exist.
Manchester City, led by manager Pep Guardiola, has been facing challenges lately, with the team slipping to seventh place in the Premier League despite having the best expected goals (xG) record in the league.
Despite Manchester City's poor run of form, Pep Guardiola, like physicist Ian Graham, recognizes the importance of not letting the narrative distort the raw numerical narrative, a concept often applicable in soccer.
