U.S. Tariffs' aftermath: Florence, Milan, and Trieste provinces recording the most hardships
In 2025, the U.S. tariffs have critically impacted several Italian provinces, with Florence being the hardest hit. The city's exports to the U.S. made up 26.9% of its foreign sales in early 2025, much higher than Italy’s national average, due to its concentration in sectors like fashion, leather goods, jewelry, precision mechanics, food, and wine. With a 30% U.S. tariff imposed, Florence alone suffered estimated losses of €580 million in just the first three months of 2025, potentially exceeding €1 billion when projected longer term, accounting for more than half of Tuscany’s total losses.
The entire Italian economy faces severe repercussions, with total export losses to the U.S. projected at around €38 billion by 2027, which is about 58% of Italy’s exports to the U.S. and roughly 6% of Italy’s total exports. This translates into a substantial impact on the country’s GDP, potentially reducing it by 0.8% by 2027. Key vulnerable sectors include pharmaceuticals, agri-food, and advanced machinery, which are highly integrated with the U.S. market.
The tariff impact across provinces beyond Florence is not detailed explicitly in the available data, but Florence’s case illustrates the substantial risks faced by provinces specialized in export-driven, high-value industries connected to the U.S. market. At a national level, the projected loss to Italian exporters due to the 30% tariff rate is about €874 million per percentage point of tariff, implying massive economic disruption.
Here's a breakdown of the estimated losses for some of the most affected provinces in the first quarter of 2025:
- Florence (Tuscany): €580 million
- Milan: €547 million
- L'Aquila: €208 million
- Frosinone: €176 million
- Enna: €207,000
It is important to note that these figures are based on a 30% tariff rate. If the tariff rate were lower, the potential losses would also be lower. For instance, with tariffs at 10%, the possible loss in L'Aquila and Frosinone in the first quarter of 2025 would have been a third of the actual loss. If the tariff rate were 15%, the loss would have been halved.
The tariffs’ cumulative effect threatens Italy’s economic growth forecasts for 2025 and 2026, essentially erasing expected growth due to the scale of export disruptions and increased trade costs. The situation remains fluid, with pressures on the Italian government and EU for potential countermeasures or trade negotiations as the tariffs are part of a broader U.S. strategy targeting European imports.
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The tariffs have inflicted a significant financial burden on several Italian provinces, with losses in Florence, Milan, L'Aquila, Frosinone, and Enna reaching €580 million, €547 million, €208 million, €176 million, and €207,000 respectively. This economic disruption, primarily stemming from the U.S. market's high-value export-driven industries, places a strain on the country's Business sector, potentially reducing Italy's GDP by 0.8% by 2027.
