Title: Decoding the Average Length of S&P 500 Bull Markets: A Historical Perspective and Future Outlook
The stock market has been on a roll for the past couple of years, entering its third year of this bull run. As of now, the S&P 500 (^GSPC -1.54%) has seen a staggering 65% surge since its October 2022 low, while the Nasdaq (^IXIC -1.63%) is up by a whopping 87% in the same time frame.
However, a third of U.S. investors are feeling bearish about the next six months, according to a 2025 survey from the American Association of Individual Investors. While no one can predict the market's future, understanding the averages can give us a rough idea.
Generally speaking, bull markets tend to outperform bear markets. Historical data suggests that the average S&P 500 bull market between 1929 and 2023 lasted 1,011 days, contrasting with the average bear market duration of 286 days. Interestingly, recent bull markets have been longer, with three lasting over 2,000 days and eight surpassing 500 days.
Currently, we're 820 days into this bull market. Considering the average bull market length, we might have around six months left before the next downturn. However, the market's short-term unpredictability is a significant caveat.
Looking ahead, averages can provide a rough overview but cannot predict the future. For instance, while bull markets normally last around 1,000 days, some have persisted for much longer. For example, the market surge between 2009 and 2020 lasted almost 4,000 days.
One thing is certain: every bear market in history has been followed by a bull market. Investing for the long term increases your chances of positive returns, as shown by the 27% chance of negative returns in a one-year investment, but only a 6% chance in a 10-year timeframe.
To protect your portfolio from market volatility, consider a consistent investing strategy known as dollar-cost averaging. This approach involves investing at regular intervals, regardless of the market's performance. During bear markets, you may buy at lower prices, while bull markets can see you paying higher prices. Over time, these fluctuations should balance out.
Investing fearfully due to market uncertainties is common, yet predicting the market is challenging. A consistent investment strategy and long-term perspective can help protect your portfolio.
Despite the bearish sentiment among a third of U.S. investors, financing your investments during this bull market could potentially yield significant returns. Maintaining a consistent investing strategy, such as dollar-cost averaging, can help protect your portfolio from market volatility, ensuring that you invest both during bear and bull markets.
