Thursday, 12th December: Russia's Conflict Against Ukraine: Updates and Insights from Ukraine
Thursday, 12th December: Russia's Conflict Against Ukraine: Updates and Insights from Ukraine
Day 1024 in Ukraine's Conflict.
Zaporizhzhia area. On December 10, Russia launched a deadly ballistic missile strike on a private medical facility in the southeastern regional capital, resulting in at least 11 fatalities and over 20 injuries. This attack marked the most devastating incident in recent months, surpassing a different assault just three days prior that resulted in the loss of 10 lives.
Kherson region. *Russian artillery fire on December 12 resulted in one fatality and two injuries.*
On December 12, Ukraine's Ground Forces Day, Ukrainian President *Volodymyr Zelenskyy visited the 27th Reactive Artillery Brigade, the first unit in the country to receive HIMARS rocket systems. He also paid a visit to the country's first underground front-line surgical unit, a critical medical facility that has saved over 1,000 lives*.
Between 2024 and now, Russian soldiers *executed more than 100 Ukrainian POWs in confirmed incidents.* For the first two years of the conflict, 177 such incidents have been documented, with Ukraine's intelligence and law enforcement agencies regularly reporting breaches of international humanitarian law and systematic mistreatment of Ukrainian POWs by Russian forces.
Canada's Parliament has approved nearly *$600 million in military aid for Ukraine.* The funds will be used to enhance ammunition and other essential supplies, as well as training. The package also includes $300 million in financial aid from the International Monetary Fund and more than $35 million for mine clearance. Since the initiation of Russia's full-scale invasion in 2022, Canada has provided more than $4.5 billion to Ukraine.
Ukraine's Finance Minister, Serhiy Marchenko, claims that Ukraine has sufficient weapons and finances to sustain its defense at least until mid-2025, even if U.S. support were to cease. In an interview with El Pais, Marchenko acknowledged that a reduction in U.S. support would present significant challenges but not an insurmountable crisis. He emphasized the importance of establishing strong relations and trust with a new U.S. administration, which he considers a vital strategic priority for both Ukraine and Europe.
On December 11, the *European Union approved its 15th round of sanctions against the Kremlin, targeting entities within Russia and foreign nations that aid in upgrading Russian military and technological capabilities by circumventing restrictions.* The package enlarges the sanctions list, adding additional individuals and legal entities, and includes measures against ships from foreign countries supporting Russian President Vladimir Putin's hostile policies. Notably, it introduces sanctions against Chinese companies allegedly involved in Moscow's military production and includes 48 tankers linked to Russia's efforts to circumvent oil price caps.
In a recent interview with *Time magazine*, U.S. President-elect Donald Trump expressed opposition to supplying Ukraine with long-range American missiles capable of striking deep within Russian territory, labeling it an escalation of the war. While Trump expressed his commitment to supporting Ukraine, he emphasized using American aid as a bargaining chip to encourage Russia into negotiations for a ceasefire. This stance contrasts with President Joe Biden's earlier approval of ATACMS missiles for Kyiv. Trump's approach could potentially hamper Ukraine's front-line troops and delay Ukraine's NATO membership for years.
The *National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) has raised its key interest rate by 0.5 percentage points to 13.5%.* Despite the NBU projections, inflation has surpassed all expectations, reflecting an ongoing energy deficit. Predictions of the shortfall in electricity supply remain highly unreliable, primarily due to the unpredictable nature of Russian missile strikes on energy infrastructure and varying success in intercepting the missiles.
The recent NBU decision aims to combat inflationary pressures, which have accelerated significantly in recent months, with inflation reaching 11.2% in November, up from 2.2% in June. The central financial institution, which overlooked the accelerating inflation for almost six months, is tightening monetary policy in an attempt to bring inflation down towards a target rate of 5%. Although the NBU has hinted that it may continue raising rates if inflationary pressures persist, it also cited a $50 billion agreement involving frozen Russian assets, which will bolster the nation's foreign reserves.
French President Emmanuel Macron and Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk met on December 12 to discuss the possibility of international troops serving as *peacekeepers in Ukraine.* Despite Ukrainian President Zelenskyy's openness to considering this idea, Tusk later declared that Poland does not currently support any such proposition. The presence of such peacekeepers likely would necessitate a cessation of hostilities between Russia and Ukraine. No mentions of attempting to gauge Russia's views on international peacekeepers in Ukraine were present in the reports of the talks.
Russia's economy *faces mounting pressure as military spending escalates, with the 2025 defense budget projected to increase by 25% to over $130 billion.* Despite enormous military expenditures totaling 8% of GDP, or a quarter of the federal budget, economic growth has stagnated under Western sanctions, further exacerbated by labor shortages and inflation of nearly 10%. The arms industry is grappling with aging Soviet-era stockpiles and sanctions on critical imports, while the recruitment costs reflect difficulties in replacing front-line losses. As oil revenues decrease, the government hopes that new taxes and spending cuts will stabilize finances, but high interest rates and sanctions could plunge the fragile economy into stagflation or recession, amplifying vulnerability to external shocks.
In a significant trade agreement with Indian private refinery Reliance, Russian state-owned oil company Rosneft is prepared to deliver around 480,000 barrels of oil daily, marking the largest energy deal between these two countries. This long-term agreement, valued at $13 billion annually, bolsters the energy relationship between these nations while Moscow faces economic pressures from Western sanctions. Now, India, the leading consumer of Russian oil since EU imports decreased in 2022, will receive up to three deliveries of heavy fuel oil each month. The pricing and quantity will be fine-tuned annually.**
By Danylo Nosov, Alan Sacks.
- In response to the escalating war in Ukraine, President-elect Trump expressed opposition to supplying Ukraine with long-range American missiles, citing it as an escalation of the conflict. This stance contrasts with President Biden's earlier approval of ATACMS missiles for Kyiv.
- French President Emmanuel Macron and Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk met to discuss the possibility of international peacekeepers serving in Ukraine. Despite Ukrainian President Zelenskyy's openness to considering this, Tusk later declared that Poland does not currently support the idea.
- Russian President Vladimir Putin strongly criticized President Macron for supporting Ukraine, stating that France's decision to extend military aid to Ukraine would harm their diplomatic relations.
- During a visit to the 27th Reactive Artillery Brigade in Ukraine, President Zelenskyy thanked France for its support, mentioning France's role in providing weapons and training to the Ukrainian forces.