Sugar factories in India failing to attain export quota, estimated exports to reach approximately 775,000 tons, sources confirm.
India's sugar exports for the current season are expected to fall below 800,000 metric tons, according to unnamed officials who spoke to media outlets. The forecast was made in light of plentiful monsoon rains, which are expected to boost sugar output in the new season beginning October 1.
Despite this prediction, Indian sugar mills have requested the government to allow exports of over 200,000 tons in the new season. However, the increased Brazilian supplies have undercut Indian sugar shipments, causing global sugar prices to drop.
India, the world's biggest sugar producer, had set a 1 million-ton export quota for the season. Yet, the rise in Indian sugar prices above the global benchmark has slowed exports, causing mills to sell more in the domestic market.
In recent months, Brazilian sugar has traded more than $25 cheaper than Indian shipments in Asia, further challenging India's export prospects. As a result, only a handful of export deals have been made in the past few weeks.
India exports sugar to countries such as Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Indonesia, Sri Lanka, and the United Arab Emirates. As of now, Indian mills have contracted to export around 750,000 tons and have physically shipped about 720,000 metric tons.
Under optimistic estimates, Indian mills are unlikely to sign export deals for more than 25,000 tons by the end of this month. The total overseas sugar shipments in 2024-25 are expected to be around 775,000 tons, marking a significant decrease from the annual average volumes of 6.8 million tons that India exported during the five years to 2022-23, when it was the world's No. 2 sugar exporter.
The global sugar market will continue to monitor India's sugar exports closely, as the country navigates the challenges posed by increased Brazilian supplies and domestic price fluctuations.
