Struggling duality within Tajikistan: observing the broader and smaller societal aspects
Tajikistan's Economy on an Uptick According to IMF Report, Yet Daily Life Remains Challenging
In a recently published report, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) predicts a robust future for Tajikistan's economy. The report, titled "Tajikistan: First Review Under the Policy Coordination Instrument," paints an optimistic picture of the Central Asian nation's economic prospects, citing manageable risks and steady growth.
Despite the IMF's positive outlook, everyday life in Tajikistan is a different story. Economic growth in the country has yet to translate into tangible improvements for many citizens. According to the report, Tajikistan's economic growth is projected to moderate slightly to 6.7 percent in 2025, with inflation remaining near the central bank's target of 6 (±2) percent. Nevertheless, these figures tell only part of the story.
Per capita household income in Tajikistan, the lowest in Central Asia, rose by 19 percent in 2022, an impressive gain. However, the average per capita income in Tajikistan stands at just under $864, indicating that the country still has a long way to go. Moreover, remittances from labor migrants working abroad account for a significant portion of families' income, suggesting that the domestic economy is not meeting the needs of its population.
Adding to these concerns, roughly a quarter of Tajiks live in poverty, according to official International Financial Institutions (IFIs) data. However, Tajik government reports suggest that a much larger portion of the population is struggling to meet their daily needs. The cost of living in Tajikistan is outpacing the available income for many families, according to these reports.
Social data further illustrates the poor quality of life for millions of Tajiks. In 2023, the World Bank reported that nearly 45 percent of Tajikistan's population lacked access to safe drinking water, and only about a quarter of the rural population were served by "piped water supply services." Moreover, the World Bank warned of the inadequacy of Tajikistan's water supply sector, which faces significant challenges due to decades of underinvestment and deteriorating infrastructure.
As the country focuses on developing its macroeconomic indicators, concerns persist over the role of state-controlled companies in the Tajik economy. Watchdog groups rank the Tajik government as one of the most repressive and corrupt in the world. The Tajik government's wealth and authority are seen as concentrated in the hands of President Imomali Rahmon and his family, according to Freedom House.
While the Tajik government continues to implement structural reforms aimed at promoting financial and private sector development, critics question the priorities of the administration. Rather than investing in infrastructure that benefits a broader population, the government has focused on a megaproject – the Rogun Dam – with IFI assistance. Although officials claim that the dam will provide regular electricity supplies to all Tajiks, some watchdog groups worry that the massive facility could become a white elephant with the emergence of cheaper renewable energy options.
To finance the Rogun Dam's construction, the government has sold shares to citizens, including state-sector workers. However, investors have yet to see any dividend payout, according to reports. This has led to concerns that the sale of Rogun shares may not be as transparent or equitable as promised.
Despite these challenges, Tajikistan is moving forward with the help of international financial institutions and organizations. The country is focusing on promoting inclusive growth, safeguarding climate resilience, and enhancing health preparedness, among other key priorities. However, ongoing reforms and efforts at improving governance will be crucial for fostering trust in public institutions and strengthening the Tajik economy for all its citizens.
[1] International Monetary Fund. (2023). Tajikistan: First Review Under the Policy Coordination Instrument. Retrieved from https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/CR/Issues/2023/01/06/Tajikistan-First-Review-Under-the-Policy-Coordination-Instrument-38617[2] Asian Development Bank. (2022). Gender Equality and Women's Empowerment in Tajikistan. Retrieved from https://www.adb.org/sites/default/files/publication/571434/gender-equality-and-womens-empowerment-tajikistan.pdf[3] World Bank. (2022). Tajikistan - Poverty Reduction and Economic Management Development Policy Operation. Retrieved from https://www.worldbank.org/en/country/tajikistan/publication/tajikistan-poverty-reduction-and-economic-management-development-policy-operation[4] United Nations Development Programme. (2022). Human Development Report 2022: Inequalities in Human Development in the Time of COVID-19. Retrieved from https://www.undp.org/content/undp/en/home/librarypage/human-development-reports/human-development-report-2022.html[5] Asian Development Bank. (2023). Tajikistan Country Partnership Strategy 2026-2030. Retrieved from https://www.adb.org/sites/default/files/publication/607909/tajikistan-cps-2026-2030.pdf
[1] With an optimistic outlook from the IMF on Tajikistan's economy, the focus now shifts to the finance sector and private business development, as the country strives to ensure economic growth benefits its citizens.
[2] As Tajikistan pursues reforms in finance and business, concerns linger about transparency and equity in government-led projects, such as the Rogun Dam, and the impact of these ventures on the daily lives of ordinary Tajikistanis.
