State revenues reached a new high of 187.6 billion rubles in July
In July 2025, the mortgage market witnessed a significant shift, characterised by rising inventory and robust buyer demand. Both subsidised and market-rate home programs experienced a resurgence, with affordability concerns driving renewed interest in lower-tier homes.
The volume of issuances under subsidised programs reached an all-time high of 187.6 billion rubles in July, a 15% increase from June. The Family Mortgage program, in particular, showed significant growth, with Sberbank issuing 159.2 billion rubles, a 15% increase from the previous month. This growth led to the Family Mortgage's share increasing by 0.6 p.p., approaching 70% of the entire market.
In the subsidised sector, lower price tier homes saw a resurgence in contract volume, indicating strong demand driven by affordability where inventory exists. Overall buyer demand is healthy, reflected by a nearly 9% year-over-year increase in properties under contract nationally, and contract volume growth of around 3.4%, including in lower price segments.
Price growth is slowing, with a 1.5% year-over-year increase nationally, and price cuts are the highest since 2020, reflecting market adjustments and seller responses to buyer expectations and rising inventories. Mortgage rates, though easing slightly from earlier forecasts, remain relatively high, around 6.4% to 6.8%. However, this could lead to increased demand for subsidised programs that offer lower borrowing costs or down payment assistance.
In the market-rate sector, the share of Far Eastern and Arctic Mortgage (DViA) saw a notable increase in July, with Sberbank issuing approximately 19 billion rubles under this program. The share of DViA in July was 8.2%, and throughout the year, the share of DViA fluctuates in the range of 7-9%.
Regions like Tomsk Oblast (7.2%) and Novosibirsk Oblast (6.7%) led in the share of IT mortgage from the total issuance volume. However, demand for IT mortgage has decreased, with issuance volume decreasing by 16.4% to 3.9 billion rubles.
The highest share of market programs is characteristic of regions with low construction volumes. Leaders in July were the Republic of Karachay-Cherkessia (36.1%), Omsk Oblast (33.2%), and Saratov Oblast (32.7%). Among the regions leading in issuance volume, a high share of Family Mortgage issuances is noted in the Krasnodar Krai (82.5%) and the Rostov region (82.4%).
In summary, July 2025’s mortgage market features increased supply and stable-to-rising demand in both subsidised and market-rate sectors. Affordability concerns are driving renewed interest in lower-tier homes alongside overall cautious optimism about mortgage rates and price growth. The market adjustments and seller responses to buyer expectations and rising inventories are expected to continue in the coming months.
Businesses in the mortgage market observed a surge in July 2025, characterized by a boost in supply and steadily rising demand. This trend, driven by affordability concerns, significantly impacted the finance sector, leading to increased demand for subsidized programs offering lower borrowing costs or down payment assistance. In the market-rate sector, there was a notable increase in Far Eastern and Arctic Mortgage (DViA) programs.
