Stabilized Gasoline Scenario: Further Price Increases to Remain Under Inflation Rate, According to Energy Ministry
Russia Extends Gasoline Export Ban and Boosts Domestic Production
Russia has extended its ban on gasoline exports, with plans to keep it in place until at least September and possibly October, as the government seeks to stabilize domestic fuel prices and maintain supply at gas stations.
The ban, which is currently in force through August 31, 2025, was first announced earlier this year and initially targeted companies that do not produce gasoline. However, recent measures now include producers as well, reflecting efforts to control rising domestic gasoline prices amid a tight market.
Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak has led discussions on export restrictions, emphasizing the importance of balancing domestic supply and preventing sharp price increases at gas stations. This approach follows a pattern of temporary gasoline export bans used by Russia in 2024 and early 2025 to manage domestic fuel availability and inflation.
In addition to the export restrictions, Russia is also focusing on increasing domestic production. The modernization of oil refineries is expected to provide a 7-8% safety margin in gasoline production, with an increase of 4-5 million tons anticipated upon completion.
The production of diesel in Russia is also planned to be increased by 15-20 million tons by the end of the decade. Part of this increased production will be winter diesel. Additional volumes of diesel production as a result of modernization are expected to range from 15 million to 20 million tons by 2028-2030.
Despite the surge in prices, the price increase at Russian gas stations for 92, 95 gasoline, and diesel fuel is below inflation and expected to continue. The price increase for 92 and 95 gasoline is approximately 3-3.3%, while for diesel fuel it is 2.5%. Inflation is currently at 4.9%.
Internal supplies of diesel are 8% higher than last year, and gasoline stocks are 1% higher than at the beginning of summer. The wholesale price of 95 gasoline spiked in July but has been contained over the past week.
In summary, Russia has not just extended the gasoline export ban to late August but is actively considering prolonging and tightening it through September-October 2025 specifically to maintain stability in domestic fuel markets and gas station supply. The government's efforts to increase domestic production through the modernization of oil refineries aim to provide a safety margin and meet the rising demand during the high season.
The Russian government is not only extending the gasoline export ban until September or October, but also boosting domestic production to maintain stability in the domestic fuel industry. This increased production, resulting from the modernization of oil refineries, is expected to provide a significant safety margin and meet the rising demand in the energy sector. Furthermore, the focus on increasing diesel production by up to 20 million tons by the end of the decade underscores the government's commitment to the finance and business sectors, ensuring adequate fuel supplies for various industries.
