Soybeans Decrease on Friday
Soybean Prices Show Short-Term Decline Amidst Long-Term Gains
Soybean prices have experienced a slight short-term decline, with the national average Cash Bean price dropping 7 cents to $9.28 ¼ as of August 14, 2025. This decrease is in contrast to the recent upward trend, as August 2025 futures were trading around $10.18 per bushel and September 2025 futures were near $10.20 ¾ per bushel just a few weeks ago [1].
Despite this minor setback, the futures market remains optimistic, with estimates projecting prices to rise above $10.29 per bushel by the end of the third quarter and reaching approximately $10.75 in 12 months [3]. The USDA's 2025-26 farm price estimate for soybeans remains around $10.10 to $10.25 per bushel, up modestly from the 2024-25 average of about $9.95 to $10.10 [2][4].
Export Sales and Supply Fundamentals
The decline in soybean acreage in the U.S., now estimated at around 80.9 million acres, has contributed to slightly reduced production forecasts of about 4.292 billion bushels for the 2025-26 crop year [1]. Ending stocks for new crop soybeans are tightening, with carryout stocks projected at approximately 290-295 million bushels, down 20 million bushels from prior forecasts [1][2].
U.S. soybean exports and crush are robust, with crush forecast at a record high of 2.54 billion bushels for 2025/26, up 50 million bushels from prior projections [2]. Actual FAS exports are currently 94% of the USDA estimate at 47.887 MMT, and export sales data has the old crop soybean commitments at 51.493 MMT, which is 101% of the USDA projection for exports [5].
Globally, China’s soybean crush is expected to decline slightly in 2024/25 but remains stable in 2025/26, with overall global ending stocks projected slightly higher due to carryover stocks [2].
Market Participants
Commercials were net short 68,230 contracts by Tuesday, while Managed money added another 29,619 contracts to their net short position as of August 5 [6]. Soy Oil futures were down 78 to 88 points on the day, but Soymeal futures were creeping back higher, up 40 to 70 cents at the close [7]. Soybeans posted losses of 5 to 7 cents across most contracts on Friday [8].
Weather Outlook
The 7-day forecast predicts totals up to 1-nearly 5+ inches for parts of IA, southern WI, northern MO, and northwest IL in the next week. Areas in KS, MN, IN, and MI are expected to receive nearly an inch [9].
This article is for informational purposes only, and readers should view the Disclosure Policy for more information. Austin Schroeder did not have positions in any of the mentioned securities on the date of publication.
References: [1] USDA Crop Production Report [2] USDA WASDE Report [3] CME Group Soybean Futures [4] USDA Farm Price Summary [5] USDA Export Sales Report [6] Commitments of Traders Report [7] CME Group Soy Oil Futures [8] CME Group Soybean Futures [9] National Weather Service
- Given the USDA's projected rise in soybean prices beyond $10.29 per bushel by the end of the third quarter, astute investors in the finance sector might consider investing in real estate that relies on soy production for long-term gains.
- While the current weather forecast predicts significant rainfall across several corn-growing regions over the next week, the potential impact on soybean production should be carefully evaluated by farmers and real-estate investors alike, as excessive moisture could potentially reduce yields and influence prices.
