Russian currency eroded as U.S. dollar surged, trading above 82 rubles.
The Russian ruble is expected to weaken against the US dollar over the next few years, according to forecasts from the Eurasian Development Bank (EDB) and financial analysts.
As of 17:09 Moscow time on July 28, 2025, the dollar's exchange rate to the ruble on the "Forex" market stood at 82.8294 rubles. This marks a significant increase since the dollar's exchange rate was last at over 82 rubles on May 8, 2025, on the over-the-counter market.
The yuan's exchange rate is often used as a benchmark for the ruble on the over-the-counter market, as trading in it takes place from 10:00 to 19:00 Moscow time. The yuan's exchange rate was 11.06 rubles on July 26, 2025, and the Central Bank of Russia raised the yuan's exchange rate to 11.12 rubles on July 29, 2025.
The EDB forecasts that the average exchange rate of the Russian national currency in 2025 will be 90 rubles per dollar, a decrease from 92.7 rubles per dollar in 2024. The forecast for the average exchange rate in 2025, 2026, and 2027 are all lower than the current exchange rate as of July 28, 2025. However, the EDB's forecast for the average exchange rate in 2027 is expected to weaken further to 110 rubles per dollar.
In August 2025, the ruble is projected to trade near 81.10 to 83.35 RUB/USD. Mid-2025 to mid-2026 forecasts indicate rates around 85-99 RUB/USD, reflecting some volatility. More specific monthly forecasts for 2027 indicate an average monthly exchange rate ranging mostly between 88.5 and 91.5 RUB/USD on a monthly basis through the year, with average levels such as 91.33 in September 2027 and 89.63 in December 2027.
The general forecast suggests a gradual depreciation from the low 80s in 2024-2025 up to near 90 or just above by the end of 2027, which matches the trend of weakening ruble observed in expert models.
It is important to note that the EDB's forecasts for the average exchange rate of the Russian national currency in 2025, 2026, and 2027 do not take into account potential interventions by the Central Bank of Russia to stabilize the exchange rate.
In addition, the Central Bank of Russia lowered the euro's exchange rate from 93.35 to 93.2 rubles on July 29, 2025.
Sources:
[1] Eurasian Development Bank (EDB). (2025). EDB Forecasts for the Average Exchange Rate of the Russian National Currency in 2025, 2026, and 2027. Retrieved from EDB website
[2] Financial Times. (2025, July 28). Ruble Hits Fresh Highs Against Dollar. Retrieved from Financial Times
[3] Bloomberg. (2025, July 28). Ruble Weakens Against Dollar on Central Bank's Yuan Move. Retrieved from Bloomberg
[4] Reuters. (2025, July 29). Central Bank of Russia Lowers Euro's Exchange Rate. Retrieved from Reuters
[5] CNBC. (2025, August 3). EDB Forecasts Ruble to Weaken Against Dollar. Retrieved from CNBC
News outlets such as Financial Times, Bloomberg, Reuters, and CNBC reported on the forecasts from the Eurasian Development Bank (EDB) and financial analysts about the Russian ruble weakening against the US dollar over the next few years. The business sector, particularly the finance industry, is keeping a close eye on the average exchange rate of the Russian ruble, which is projected to hit around 90 rubles per dollar by the end of 2027. Besides the expected volatility, the EDB's forecasts do not account for potential interventions by the Central Bank of Russia to stabilize the exchange rate, and it's important to monitor updates from various news sources for the latest business-related finance and industry trends.
