Rise in Fossil Fuel Usage in Estonia's Transport Remains Upward Trend (based on survey)
In recent years, Estonia has witnessed a significant decline in its greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, with a reported 6.4% yearly decrease as of mid-2025[1]. This places the country among those with high per capita emissions but notable recent reductions[1].
One sector not fully represented in the preliminary data for 2024 is land use[2]. The Estonian Environmental Research Center (EERC) has provided initial estimates, showing a 14.5% year-on-year decrease in emissions from production units belonging to the emissions trading system[2]. However, the final and verified GHG emission data for 2024 will only be available by March 2026[3].
Road transport remains an important emission source, although specific trends for Estonia were not detailed in the search results. The broader European trend indicates that road transport continues to contribute significantly to emissions[1][4]. In the EU, sectors like power and gas supply experienced a 3.4% increase in GHG emissions in Q1 2025 compared to the previous year, with households, manufacturing, and electricity/gas supply being key contributors[1][2][4].
The short-term increase in EU emissions is mainly due to decreased renewable energy production and increased fossil fuel use[2]. Estonia, traditionally relying on oil shale for energy, a relatively carbon-intensive fuel, has seen an overall country-level GHG decline, suggesting ongoing efforts or transition towards cleaner energy sources are likely contributing positively to emission reductions[1].
Coordinating Estonia's national greenhouse gas reporting is Cris-Tiina Pärn, who emphasizes that everyone can contribute to mitigating climate change through their choices[5]. The Estonian government, however, faces a challenge in reducing total GHG emissions, particularly in sectors outside the emissions trading system, such as road transport and industry[6].
Short trips in Estonia contribute to air pollution, noise, and GHG emissions[7]. Over half of the trips made in Tallinn are under 10 kilometers[8]. Pärn emphasizes that less environmentally harmful modes of transport can replace short trips[5]. Despite the rise in fuel-efficient vehicles, the increase in road transport emissions is not offset[6].
In 2024, total emissions in Estonia decreased less overall compared to the previous year, due to an increase in emissions in several other sectors, primarily in road transport and industry[6]. The majority of emissions in the transport sector originate from Harju County[9].
The use of renewable energy in Estonia has contributed to a decrease in per capita GHG emissions, but fossil fuel consumption in the transport sector continues to rise[10]. In 2022, natural gas consumption in Estonia fell sharply due to rising prices, but when the average market price of natural gas dropped, consumption increased again[11].
Pärn encourages the adoption of less environmentally harmful modes of transport to address the rise in road transport emissions. In 2024, road transport emissions in Estonia increased by nearly 7%[6]. As the final and verified GHG emission data for 2024 becomes available, it will provide a clearer picture of Estonia's progress towards its emission reduction goals.
References:
- Estonia's Greenhouse Gas Emissions
- Estonian Environmental Research Centre
- Estonia's Greenhouse Gas Inventory
- EU Greenhouse Gas Emissions
- Interview with Cris-Tiina Pärn
- Estonia's Greenhouse Gas Emissions by Sector
- Short Trips in Estonia
- Tallinn's Short Trips
- Emissions in Harju County
- Renewable Energy in Estonia
- Natural Gas Consumption in Estonia
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