Projected Decline in Monthly Social Security Retirement Benefits for Workers: $553 by 2033
The Old-Age and Survivors Insurance trust fund (OASI), responsible for retired worker benefits, is forecast to exhaust its asset reserves by 2033, according to the Social Security Board of Trustees. This alarming prediction could lead to a sizable reduction in monthly payouts for retired workers come 2033.
The OASI's asset reserves represent excess income built up since inception that hasn't been outlaid and is invested in interest-bearing, special-issue government bonds. If the OASI's asset reserve outflow isn't addressed by Congress, it will run out in eight years, potentially slashing monthly benefits for retired workers and survivors of deceased workers by 23%.
The decline in the worker-to-beneficiary ratio is due to baby boomers retiring and a lack of new workers entering the labor force to replace them. Additionally, rising income inequality has caused more wages and salary to 'escape' the payroll tax, as the taxable earnings cap has not kept pace with income growth for high earners.
In 2025, all earned income from $0.01 to $176,100 is subject to the payroll tax, with anything above the taxable earnings cap exempted. However, the depletion of the OASI's asset reserves could result in a monthly reduction of $553 for a typical Social Security recipient, lowering the average estimated retired-worker check to approximately $1,852.
Legal net migration into the U.S. has declined since the late 1990s, which is problematic because most migrants are young and contribute to Social Security via the payroll tax. Conversely, the U.S. fertility rate has hit an all-time low, posing a threat to the worker-to-beneficiary ratio in the future.
In April 2023, 86% of retirees surveyed by Gallup pointed to their Social Security benefits as a 'major' or 'minor' income source. The average monthly Social Security retired-worker benefit crossed above $2,000 for the first time in May, amounting to $2,005.05 per month as of June 2025. If the average Social Security COLA of 2.3% annually is maintained, the typical monthly check in 2033 would increase to about $2,405.
Lawmakers' failure to address the OASI's imminent asset reserve depletion could lead to more expensive solutions in the future. Tackling Social Security's issues may require tough decisions from lawmakers, potentially affecting votes in upcoming elections. However, the name of the congressman or politician who emphasized the need for a solution for the expiring assets of the Old-Age and Survivors Insurance Trust Fund in 2033 to prevent a 23% reduction in monthly payments for retirees and survivors is not publicly available.
The 2025 Trustees Report reveals that the long-term unfunded obligation for Social Security ballooned to $25.1 trillion, highlighting the urgent need for action. As the retirement age for many Americans approaches, it is crucial that lawmakers take steps to secure the future of Social Security and ensure that retirees can rely on their benefits.
