Predicting Moderna's Position in the Next Three Years
As Moderna (MRNA, 6.14%) navigates its transition from coronavirus vaccine sales decline, investors are curious about its future prospects. By 2028, the biotech may operate more like a traditional pharma company, focusing on its next phase. But will it prove more successful than the previous phase? Let's dive into its plans and potential financial impacts.
Shifting Gears
Before delving into where this company is heading, it's crucial to set realistic expectations. Moderna won't likely reach its all-time highs for revenue or earnings in the next three years. Despite slim chances of another idiosyncratic boom like the COVID-19 vaccine, there's still an investment thesis for this stock.
Moderna's management plans include 10 product launches in the next three years and a reduction in annual research and development investment by $1.1 billion in 2027. With a current trailing-12-month revenue of $5 billion, operating losses of $2.7 billion, and tightening financial resources, it must deliver in-demand medicines.
The products with the most earning potential include a combined influenza and COVID-19 shot, an influenza vaccine, and a next-gen COVID-19 jab. Each could potentially become blockbuster drugs generating over $1 billion annually. Bear in mind that revenue isn't the only method for shareholder benefit. For instance, the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services provided $590 million to advance Moderna's pandemic influenza vaccine program. Additional grants and funding may follow.
Small-market drugs with niche applications, like Moderna's seven oncology drugs in late-stage trials (particularly its INTs), could boost the stock price even before approval. While revenue may not surge quickly, success with these candidates is a sure bet for Moderna.
Patience is Key
If you choose to invest in Moderna, be prepared for a long-term commitment. Growth from new programs might not be realized before five years have passed, and there's no urgent need to buy the stock now or within the next couple of quarters.
While some clinical programs may fail, delivering drugs to market, and updating progress, will be encouraging signs. Moderna's pivotal role in the biopharma scene means it will continue to shape the landscape, especially if advanced therapeutic vaccines demonstrate their potential in the next three years.
Enrichment Data
Moderna's strategy includes 10 product launches and potential blockbuster drugs over the next three years. Key updates include:
Upcoming Product Launches and Potential Blockbuster Drugs
- mRNA-1283 (Next-gen COVID-19 Vaccine): May 31, 2025 PDUFA Date
- mRESVIA (RSV Vaccine): Already Approved
- Combination Influenza-COVID-19 Vaccine
- Norovirus Vaccine: Phase III Trial
- CMV Vaccine: Phase III Trial
- mRNA-4157 (Cancer Vaccine) with Merck
Financial Performance and Investor Returns
- 2025 Revenue: $1.5 - 2.5 billion
- 2025 Cost Reductions: $1 billion
- 2026 Cost Reductions: $500 million
- 2024 Cash Balance: $9.5 billion
- 2025 Cash Balance: $6.0 billion
- Stock Performance: 58% drop in 2024 and 18% decline year-to-date in 2025
Investors should be aware that despite Moderna's planned product launches, its revenue and earnings may not reach all-time highs within the next three years due to the company's shift in focus and operating losses. However, there is still potential for significant returns through investments in its pipeline, including potential blockbuster drugs like the combined influenza-COVID-19 shot, an influenza vaccine, and a next-gen COVID-19 jab.
In light of the company's financial situation and long-term strategy, individuals considering investing in Moderna's stock should be prepared for a patient approach, as growth from new programs may not be realized in the near future.
