Predicting Market Trend for Archer-Daniels-Midland Shares: Bullish or Bearish?
Archer-Daniels-Midland Company (ADM), a leading player in the agricultural sector, has seen a mixed performance over the past year and more, but has managed to outperform in 2025.
In the past year, ADM has underperformed the broader market and the Vaneck Agribusiness ETF (MOO) due to several factors. The company reported a decline in revenues by about 9% in 2024, with earnings dropping by 48%. This led to a significant decrease in earnings before income taxes and EPS (earnings per share) for the second quarter of 2025, reflecting ongoing pressure on profitability.
Structural headwinds in grain merchandising, due to better price transparency for farmers and buyers, have likely limited trading profits over the longer term, impacting investor sentiment. Analyst consensus and price targets indicate some caution, with an average "Hold" rating and price targets below recent share prices.
However, ADM has shown signs of recovery in 2025. The company reported recent quarterly earnings that beat consensus estimates, with EPS surpassing expectations by over 5%. This positive performance has been bolstered by improved guidance for 2026 and 2027, with investors encouraged by the outlook for sustainable profit growth.
ADM's scale, global network, and diversified agriculture processing and nutrition businesses provide competitive advantages that may fuel this recovery in performance. The company's stock gained approximately 7.6% since the beginning of 2025, roughly in line with the S&P 500’s gain but notably better than previous periods of underperformance.
In the first two quarters of 2025, ADM's operating cash flows totaled approximately $4 billion, up a staggering 238.7% year-over-year. Despite an 11% year-over-year decline in adjusted net earnings to $452, its adjusted EPS of $0.93 surpassed the consensus estimates by 5.7%.
The stock prices of ADM soared 6% in a single trading session following the release of its better-than-expected Q2 results on Aug. 5. As of writing, the stock is trading notably above its mean price target of $51.30.
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Key Points
- ADM underperformed the broader market and the Vaneck Agribusiness ETF (MOO) over the past year due to declines in revenue and earnings, as well as structural challenges facing the agribusiness sector.
- However, it has outperformed in 2025 due to recent earnings beats and an improved outlook for the coming years.
- ADM's stock prices soared 6% in a single trading session following the release of its better-than-expected Q2 results on Aug. 5.
- The company has a market cap of $27.3 billion.
- ADM underperformed the Vaneck Agribusiness ETF's 5.2% gains over the past 52 weeks, but outperformed MOO’s 12.4% returns in 2025.
- Of the 11 analysts covering the stock, there is one "Strong Buy," eight "Holds," and two "Moderate Sells." This configuration is slightly more optimistic than three months ago, when none of the analysts gave "Buy" recommendations and one of the analysts gave "Strong Sell" suggestions.
- For the full fiscal 2025, ending in December, analysts expect ADM to deliver an adjusted EPS of $4, down 15.6% year-over-year. The company has a robust earnings surprise history, having met or surpassed the Street's bottom-line estimates in each of the past four quarters.
ADM is a company that engages in the procurement, transportation, storage, processing, and merchandising of agricultural commodities, ingredients, flavors, and solutions. As of writing, the stock of Archer-Daniels-Midland Company (ADM) has a consensus "Hold" rating overall.
- In the midst of a mixed performance over the past year, ADM, a leading player in the agricultural sector, managed to outperform in 2025 due to improved guidance, beating consensus earnings estimates, and recovery signs in its personal-finance and business metrics.
- For investors interested in the agricultural industry, ADM, despite its past underperformance, presents opportunities in 2025 and beyond, given its positive trend in financial aspects such as earnings per share (EPS), operating cash flows, and stock prices, making it an attractive option for investing in personal-finance and business ventures.
