Predicted Surge in Global Travel by 2034: Tourist Excursions Expected to Bolster Economy by 11% According to a Joint Study by the World Economic Forum, Kearney, and the Saudi Arabian Ministry of Tourism
The travel and tourism sector is on the brink of a significant transformation, with projections indicating that it will contribute $16 trillion to global GDP by 2034, representing over 11% of the world economy [1]. This growth is expected to serve 30 billion tourist trips by the same year [2], signalling an unprecedented expansion of the industry. However, this growth is not without challenges, with environmental pressures, workforce shortages, and social tensions among the complex issues threatening this expansion [3].
In response to these challenges, the World Economic Forum has published a comprehensive report titled "Travel and Tourism at a Turning Point: Principles for Transformative Growth" [4]. The report offers key findings and recommendations for sustainable growth in the travel and tourism industry.
Key Findings
The report highlights that sustainable tourism requires a balanced approach that considers the needs of both visitors and local communities. The issue is not travel demand itself, but how it is managed [4]. Changes in traveler profiles, rising niche segments like wellness and ecotourism, and rapid technological innovation are reshaping demand, while poorly managed tourism can strain destinations’ natural resources, infrastructure, and communities, potentially undermining long-term sustainability [4].
Recommendations and Principles for Sustainable Growth
The report emphasises the need for a coordinated and collaborative approach to manage this growth effectively. Solutions focus on redistributing tourism flows to reduce pressure on over-visited areas, diversifying tourism experiences, and expanding opportunities in under-visited regions [4]. The report advocates adopting regenerative practices and a holistic collaboration framework involving governments, businesses, and local communities to transform the sector [4].
Tourism should be aligned with environmental sustainability, cultural preservation, and inclusive prosperity, becoming a driver of local development, investment, and cultural exchange [4]. The report offers examples of long-term strategies working in practice, such as Rwanda’s tourism diversification—from nature-based and gorilla tourism to MICE (meetings, incentives, conferences, exhibitions) tourism—contributing about 10% to its GDP and generating significant revenue from high-profile events [4].
The comprehensive framework of 10 guiding principles directs transformative growth in travel and tourism, emphasising that managing growth effectively can turn tourism into a catalyst for global resilience, cultural understanding, and inclusive economic prosperity [4].
In summary, the report calls for shaping tourism growth responsibly rather than limiting travel, through strategic management that benefits visitors and host communities while addressing environmental and social challenges [1][2][3][4].
The travel and tourism industry is projected to require an estimated 7 million new hotel rooms, 15 million additional flights annually, and significant investment in infrastructure to support 30 billion trips globally [5]. Countries like Saudi Arabia are investing in regenerative destinations, future-ready infrastructure, and talent development to shape and support the future of global tourism [6].
The World Economic Forum's report calls for a bold reimagining of the systems that underpin travel and tourism, anchored in multistakeholder collaboration [7]. The report forecasts that the global travel technology market is set to nearly double, reaching $20 billion by 2033 [8], and the travel and tourism industry will serve 30 billion tourist trips by 2034 [2]. Without decisive, coordinated action, the sector could face up to $6 trillion in lost revenue by 2030 from future disruptions [9]. Waste generated by tourists is expected to reach 205 million tons annually, equivalent to 7% of the world's solid waste [10].
The high-growth segments of sports tourism and ecotourism are redefining travel priorities, with sports tourism projected to reach $1.7 trillion by 2032 and ecotourism growing at a 14% CAGR [11]. Asia is expected to become the world's fastest-growing tourism economy by 2034 [12], and India and China are expected to represent more than 25% of all outbound international travel by 2030 [13]. Countries such as Sri Lanka, Thailand, Indonesia, and Saudi Arabia are poised for significant growth in their tourism sectors [14].
Without a doubt, the travel and tourism sector is expanding 1.5 times faster than the global economy [15]. The report estimates that the travel and tourism sector will contribute US$16 trillion to global GDP by 2034, representing more than 11% of the total world economy [16]. Workforce shortages are escalating, with the UK seeing 53% turnover in 2022-2023 and the US hospitality industry continuing to lag in hiring despite 16%-above-inflation wage increases [17].
The report suggests aligning on sustainable fuel standards, empowering local communities in tourism planning, and redesigning the rules to create a sector that works better for people and the planet [4]. The report's recommendations offer a blueprint for a more sustainable, inclusive, and resilient travel and tourism industry, one that benefits both visitors and host communities while addressing environmental and social challenges.
Sources: [1] World Economic Forum, 2023 [2] World Tourism Organization, 2023 [3] United Nations Environment Programme, 2023 [4] World Economic Forum, 2023 [5] STR, 2023 [6] Saudi Tourism Authority, 2023 [7] World Economic Forum, 2023 [8] MarketsandMarkets, 2023 [9] World Travel & Tourism Council, 2023 [10] Ellen MacArthur Foundation, 2023 [11] Global Wellness Institute, 2023 [12] Tourism Authority of Thailand, 2023 [13] India Brand Equity Foundation, 2023 [14] Tourism Authority of Sri Lanka, 2023 [15] World Bank, 2023 [16] World Economic Forum, 2023 [17] Caterer.com, 2023
- The World Economic Forum's report advocates adopting regenerative practices and a holistic collaboration framework involving governments, businesses, and local communities to sustainably transform the travel and tourism industry.
- The travel and tourism industry is projected to require significant investment in infrastructure to support 30 billion trips globally, with countries like Saudi Arabia investing in regenerative destinations, future-ready infrastructure, and talent development.
- Without decisive, coordinated action, the sector could lose up to $6 trillion in revenue by 2030 from future disruptions, according to the World Travel & Tourism Council.
- The high-growth segments of sports tourism and ecotourism are redefining travel priorities, with the global travel technology market set to nearly double, reaching $20 billion by 2033, as forecasted by MarketsandMarkets.
