Powerful figures aim to stay hidden from public scrutiny.
In the bustling city of Moscow, the premium real estate market is experiencing a shift, with growth expected to slow down by the end of 2025. Despite high demand, several market dynamics are contributing to this forecast [1][2][3][4][5].
The growth of sales of premium new buildings in Moscow is expected to slow down mainly due to a decrease in mortgage activity, an increasing imbalance between supply and demand, a shift in investment priorities, and rapid price increases [1][2][3][4][5]. Mortgage usage in the premium segment has hit a historic low share of just 16% of transactions in early 2025, limiting buyers' ability to finance purchases [2].
Nationally, there is an increasing imbalance between supply and demand, with supply growing faster than demand. Although Moscow and St. Petersburg have managed to avoid a crisis, the overall market has seen a rise in unsold inventory and some slowing momentum towards the end of 2025 [3]. Investment flows are shifting away from residential development towards commercial real estate, reducing the capital available for new housing projects, which could restrain the pace of new premium developments and sales growth [4].
Despite a 42.4% growth in prices reported by mid-2025 and high demand, the rapid price increase can limit affordability and slow down the rate of sales despite initial strong demand [5]. Citizens are not rushing to buy apartments, awaiting a softening of the monetary credit policy [6].
In contrast, the luxury real estate market is less sensitive to difficulties in the mortgage market because deals are primarily made using personal funds. Installment plans are another driver of sales in the luxury real estate market [7]. Some buyers in the luxury real estate market are shifting their focus to the high-end secondary market due to a lack of suitable apartments in new builds [8].
Looking back, the volume of sales of premium real estate in Moscow grew by 40% year-on-year in 2024, and the total number of deals in the premium real estate segment increased threefold in 2023 [9]. However, the predicted slowdown in sales growth is due to a reduction in developer activity. Only four new projects received permits for construction in the premium real estate market in the first half of 2025, which is 64% less than the previous year [10].
The total sales volume of luxury apartments in Moscow from January to June 2025 was 160 billion rubles, a 51% increase year-on-year, and sales of premium new buildings in Moscow are expected to grow by 10-15% year-on-year by the end of 2025, reaching 2,4 thousand deals [11]. The number of luxury apartments sold in the first half of 2025 was not specified.
In the mass housing segment, the total volume of sales and the number of deals in the first half of 2025 were not specified. Developers in the mass housing segment are also reducing new constructions: their number decreased by 22% year-on-year in the first half of 2025 [12]. The volume of sales on the mass housing segment in the first half of 2025 was not specified.
In April 2025, the volume of transactions for buying expensive secondary apartments increased by 35% year-on-year [13]. This shift to the high-end secondary market is not mentioned as a driver of sales in the earlier bullet points. The luxury real estate market's shift to the high-end secondary market could be a response to the lack of suitable apartments in new builds.
In conclusion, the premium real estate market in Moscow is facing challenges that are expected to slow down its growth by the end of 2025. High prices, limited mortgage financing, a growing supply-demand imbalance, and shifting investment priorities are contributing to this forecast [1][2][3][4][5]. However, the luxury real estate market remains resilient, with deals primarily made using personal funds and the use of installment plans driving sales.
Investment in premium real-estate may face a challenge as the growth of sales for premium new buildings is projected to decrease due to a reduction in mortgage activity and a shift in investment priorities [2][4]. On the other hand, the luxury real-estate market shows resilience, as deals within it are primarily financed using personal funds and installment plans [7].
