Political Vote in Poland: Economic Factors Influencing Election Outcomes and their Current Standing
Poland is set to elect a new president on Sunday, an event of significant importance for the country's businesses. Amidst an economic boom, Poland has its share of economic challenges, particularly with regards to rising energy costs and taxes. According to Bloomberg, businesses are urging the incoming administration to tackle these difficulties promptly.
The economic landscape in Poland has been unstable due to high energy prices and taxes, leading to uncertainty among businesses. Despite receiving financial assistance from the EU, certain sectors are still experiencing a lack of orders. As a result, many businesses are hoping that the new government will take swift action on energy prices, taxes, and bureaucracy.
Poland's incumbent President Andrzej Duda has been a stumbling block for economic reforms, contradicting the promises of the government led by Prime Minister Donald Tusk. Tusk took office at the end of 2023 with the promise of ending the eight-year rule of the populist PiS party and returning Poland to the political center of Europe. However, Duda's opposition has made it difficult for Tusk's coalition to push through legislative proposals.
In the runoff election on Sunday, the PiS candidate, Karol Nawrocki, will face off against Rafał Trzaskowski, the mayor of Warsaw and the candidate supported by Tusk's government. The two candidates were separated by less than two percentage points in the first round, with less support than expected. Trzaskowski is viewed as a "symbol and guarantee of a pro-European stance" by the Polish Business Roundtable.
A Trzaskowski victory is expected to strengthen Poland's economic and political position within the EU. For large businesses, a close relationship with the EU is crucial, particularly for international investments. On the other hand, small businesses are hoping that the new president will harmonize with Tusk's government, potentially reducing social security contributions.
Rafał Trzaskowski has been associated with progressive urban and environmental policies as mayor of Warsaw, which could affect energy prices in the long term, but may also increase regulatory and compliance costs in the short term. If elected, his government would likely focus on sustainable energy transitions and green investments. Trzaskowski’s administration would also potentially streamline bureaucracy and digitalize public services, making administrative processes easier for businesses.
If Karol Nawrocki wins, he is likely to delay reforms proposed by the current government, maintaining the status quo. His support base favors traditional energy sources and is cautious about rapid green transitions, which could slow down reforms in energy pricing and infrastructure. Nawrocki’s administration might also increase bureaucratic controls, especially for sectors critical to national interest, and focus on protecting domestic industries rather than streamlining business processes.
In conclusion, the outcome of the 2025 Polish presidential election will have significant implications for Polish businesses, particularly regarding energy prices, taxes, and bureaucracy. Trzaskowski offers a reformist, pro-EU agenda, while Nawrocki represents a more conservative, cautious approach to change. Businesses will be closely watching the election results, hoping for a stable and supportive business environment.
Businesses in Poland are concerned about the effects of high energy prices, taxes, and bureaucracy on their operations, and are urging the incoming administration to take swift action to alleviate these issues. A Trzaskowski presidency is expected to focus on sustainable energy transitions and green investments, which could impact energy prices, while potentially streamlining bureaucracy and digitalizing public services. Conversely, a Nawrocki presidency might delay reforms and increase bureaucratic controls, particularly for sectors critical to national interest, which could impact business efficiency and investment.
