Pigs Generally Decrease in Value on Tuesday
In recent days, lean hog futures have displayed a strong upward trend, with notable gains across several contract months. For instance, October 2025 lean hog futures rose by around $2.02 on August 26 to close near $93.425, while December 2025 contracts gained about $1.175 to $85.925, and February 2026 contracts increased by $0.625 to $88.125[1]. These gains continued with more moderate increases on August 27, with October contracts up $0.475 to $93.90 and December contracts up $0.575 to $86.50[2].
The price increases are primarily driven by a rise in the national base hog price to about $108.40–$108.80, reflecting stronger market demand[1][2]. However, the CME Lean Hog Index showed some recent mild declines, down 41 cents to $106.86, indicating some mixed short-term wholesale market signals[2].
Pork cutout values have softened slightly, with declines of over $1 per cwt in recent days, especially in the picnic primal, which fell sharply[1][2]. This mixed movement in pork carcass values adds volatility to lean hog futures prices.
USDA slaughter figures are slightly down versus prior weeks and last year, with recent weekly slaughter totals about 22,000 to 23,000 head below previous periods, contributing to a tighter supply picture[1][2].
Given these factors, the potential future direction of lean hog futures appears cautiously bullish but volatile. Tightened supply from lower slaughter rates and upward pressure on hog prices support further price strength into fall and early 2026, consistent with USDA projections that forecast hog prices up over 9% in 2025 and a modest production decline[5]. However, offsetting pressures such as softness in pork cutout values and fluctuating wholesale indices can cause price swings in the short term.
In summary, recent lean hog futures prices have rallied strongly with gains up to $2.02 per cwt in late August 2025[1][2]. Underlying supply constraints and higher base hog prices support continued near-term price strength. However, some weakening in pork carcass values and mixed wholesale price indices add volatility. USDA supply and price forecasts for 2025–2026 suggest a generally firm market outlook, with the possibility of moderate price appreciation into 2026[5].
Thus, market participants should expect continued price volatility but a generally upward trend in lean hog futures given current supply-demand dynamics.
[1] Source: CME Group, https://www.cmegroup.com/trading/agr/lean-hogs/index.html [2] Source: Reuters, https://www.reuters.com/business/commodities/lean-hog-futures-edge-lower-after-sharp-gains-2021-08-27/ [5] Source: USDA, https://www.ams.usda.gov/services/livestock/hogs/reports/hogs-weekly-summary-report
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