Pigmeat Exports to China Reached Their Peak in the Initial Half of the Year
In the first half of 2020, Germany exported a total of 870,700 tons of pork, worth 2.4 billion euros. This figure represents a significant decrease of 26,000 tons compared to the same period in 2019, but the decline was not as steep as the 39 percent drop in the number of operations in the country.
China, the People's Republic, was the most important trading partner for German pork exports, accounting for 26.8 percent of the total. In comparison, Italy was the second-largest destination, with a share of 15.2 percent. Interestingly, exports to China more than doubled compared to the same period in 2019, despite China imposing an import ban on pork from Germany due to the outbreak of African swine fever.
The decline in the pig population in Germany, which has been ongoing for years, continued in the first half of 2020. As of May 3, 2020, there were 25.5 million pigs in the country, exactly one million fewer than ten years ago. The number of fattening pigs also decreased significantly, with 11.1 million fattening pigs as of May 3, 2020, which is 614,700 fewer than six months earlier.
The average number of pigs per operation in Germany has increased due to the decrease in the number of operations. As of now, the average number stands at 1,248 pigs per operation, up from 795 in the past.
The production of pork in Germany in the first half of 2020 decreased by 1.0 percent compared to the same period in 2019, with a total of 2.6 million tons of pork produced. A total of 409,400 tons of meat were produced from commercial slaughter in July 2020, slightly below the levels of the same month last year.
Despite the challenges faced, the impact of a hypothetical 2020 Chinese pork import ban on German pork exports appears minimal or indirect. The major disruptions and bans involving pork imports, especially aggressive actions against U.S. pork, occurred later around 2024-2025, not in 2020. EU pork exporters, including Germany, faced challenges such as fluctuating domestic China pork prices and regulatory barriers but remained significant suppliers.
In summary, the resilience of EU pork exports to China, including Germany, can be attributed to China’s domestic shortage following the African Swine Fever, which severely reduced China’s domestic pork supply. This situation led China to dramatically increase pork imports from the EU, despite regionalised bans under China’s "regionalisation" approach that sometimes temporarily restrict pork imports from specific EU regions.
In the context of various industries, the decline in German pork exports to other markets, such as finance, might be a potential area for exploration, considering the significant drop in export volumes and the relative stability in exports to China. As China continues to grapple with its own domestic shortage due to African Swine Fever, German pork exports could find new opportunities in this industry.
