Net revenues from gambling taxes in the Netherlands fail to meet expectations in 2025
Dutch Gambling Tax Revenue Takes a Hit in 2025
The Dutch gambling tax revenue for 2025 is projected to significantly decrease due to a combination of factors, including increased regulatory scrutiny, high taxation pressure on operators, and stricter controls aimed at consumer protection and responsible gambling.
Regulatory Scrutiny and Consumer Protection Measures
The Netherlands, along with other European countries like Germany and the UK, is experiencing heightened regulatory scrutiny focused on responsible gambling. Tighter controls to combat gambling addiction can reduce overall gambling activity and revenue.
High Taxation Impact on Operators
European gambling markets, including the Netherlands, impose relatively high taxes on stakes and gross gaming revenue (GGR). Such tax burdens reduce operator profits and their ability to offer competitive odds and attractive promotions. This leads to a constrained market size and diminished taxable revenue.
Shift to Unregulated Markets
As regulation tightens and taxes increase, some operators and players may move to unregulated or black-market gambling platforms, which do not contribute to state tax revenue, thereby lowering official tax income.
Economic Growth and Market Conditions
Moderate GDP growth projections for the Netherlands in 2025 (around 1.6%) and inflation decreases suggest a relatively stable but modest economic environment, not conducive to strong gambling revenue increases. This limits possible offsetting gains against regulatory and tax pressures.
Impact on the Land-based Sector
The decline is also impacting the land-based gambling sector, with a KPMG report commissioned by VAN Kansspelen finding a 7% drop in turnover compared to 2024 in the land-based gambling sector.
The Future Outlook
If the current trend persists, gambling tax revenue for 2025 is projected to fall to around €800 million - down from the €1 billion collected in 2024. The tax income from these operators has fallen to just 83% of last year’s level, despite an increase in the gambling tax rate. These tax increases were expected to generate an additional €100 million this year and €200 million annually starting next year. However, the Netherlands Gambling Authority (KSA) has confirmed these targets are unlikely to be achieved.
Call for Action
Secretary for Legal Protection Teun Struycken has urged a coordinated EU crackdown on illicit gambling platforms, while VAN Kansspelen director Daan Keij warned that the situation may worsen as long-term closures of physical venues haven't yet been factored in. High-spending players, in particular, appear to prefer illegal sites, contributing to the revenue flowing to unlicensed operators, which now accounts for nearly half of the country's online gambling revenue. Operators are cutting back on bonuses and payout percentages to offset tax-related financial pressure.
In conclusion, the decline in Dutch gambling tax revenue for 2025 can be attributed to a combination of stricter regulatory frameworks emphasizing consumer protection, the economic consequences of high taxation on operators reducing market competitiveness and participation, and related market shifts toward less taxable gambling activities or operators.
The business sector, particularly gambling operators, is grappling with financial challenges due to high taxation and increased regulatory scrutiny in Europe, as demonstrated in the Netherlands. Additionally, the industry is witnessing a shift towards unregulated markets, which undermines state tax revenue and exacerbates financial pressures on legal operators.
