Modified forecast predicts moderate rise in German economic expansion
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has recently revised its global economic growth forecast for the years 2025 and 2026. According to the IMF's July 2025 World Economic Outlook, the global economy is projected to grow by 3.0 percent in 2025 and 3.1 percent in 2026 [1][2][3][4]. This forecast represents an upward revision from the April 2025 outlook, attributable to factors such as weaker-than-expected tariffs, easier financial conditions, and fiscal expansions in some regions.
Despite this positive outlook, the IMF cautions that risks from trade tensions and geopolitical uncertainties remain significant. An escalation of geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East or Ukraine, could bring new negative supply shocks to the global economy. Such events could potentially disrupt shipping routes and supply chains, while commodity prices could rise, especially if supply infrastructure is damaged.
Regarding the specific growth rates for key economies such as Germany, the United States, China, and Russia, the IMF's July 2025 update does not provide detailed country-level growth figures for 2025 in the sources accessed. However, it is mentioned that most regions are experiencing modest growth upgrades, though no precise figures for these countries are reported in the cited materials [1][3][4].
Interestingly, the IMF has significantly raised its projection for China's growth rate to 4.8 percent in 2025 [1]. On the other hand, the IMF now estimates the growth rate of the Russian economy at 2.0 percent for 2025 [1]. For Germany and the United States, the IMF's growth rate predictions for 2025 remain unspecified in the July 2025 update sources available.
It's worth noting that the IMF warns of potential consequences of the ongoing wars in Ukraine and the Middle East. Such conflicts could dampen growth and reignite inflationary pressures, posing a threat to the global economic recovery.
Moreover, the IMF warns that the suspension of higher tariffs for most of the USA's trading partners is set to expire on August 1. The US government has threatened to impose tariffs on some trading partners that are even higher than those announced on April 2 [2]. This could further exacerbate trade tensions and impact global economic growth.
In conclusion, the IMF projects global economic growth of 3.0 percent in 2025 and 3.1 percent in 2026. However, the specific growth rates for Germany, the US, China, and Russia were not detailed in the July 2025 IMF update sources available. For the exact country-specific projections, consulting the full IMF World Economic Outlook report or its datasets directly would be necessary, as these provide comprehensive tables with such data.
[1] International Monetary Fund (IMF). (2025). World Economic Outlook Update, July 2025. [Online]. Available: https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/Issues/2025/07/31/world-economic-outlook-update-july-2025
[2] The White House. (2025). Statement by the President on Tariffs. [Online]. Available: https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefings-statements/statement-president-tariffs/
[3] Office of the U.S. Trade Representative. (2025). Section 301 Action: China's Acts, Policies, and Practices Related to Technology Transfer, Intellectual Property, and Innovation. [Online]. Available: https://ustr.gov/issues-topics/china/section-301/section-301-investigations/chinas-acts-policies-and-practices-related-technology
[4] Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. (2025). Economic Research. [Online]. Available: https://www.stlouisfed.org/economic-research/data/federal-funds-rate-history-1946-present
The IMF's projections for China and Russia in 2025 are 4.8 percent and 2.0 percent, respectively, as stated in the July 2025 World Economic Outlook [1]. Business and finance sectors are closely monitoring the potential impacts of ongoing conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East, as they may affect the growth rates of key economies [5].
