MLB Playoffs: High Payrolls No Guarantee of Success, Model Shows
The MLB playoffs are in full swing, with the New York Mets, despite their hefty payroll, failing to secure a spot. Meanwhile, a logistic regression model has been making waves, accurately predicting playoff outcomes based on team payroll with 79% precision.
The model, trained using adjusted total team payrolls, has shown that while payroll is a significant factor, it's not the sole determinant of playoff success. The Cleveland Guardians, with a payroll under $100 million, clinched the AL Central, demonstrating that high spending isn't always necessary.
Since 2022, median team payrolls have risen from $137.5 million to $162.0 million. The NL West now leads in spending, with total payrolls surpassing $1.05 billion in 2025. Conversely, the AL Central has consistently posted the lowest total payrolls, with modest growth over the years.
The model's aim is to identify potential payroll thresholds where additional spending may not yield significant returns. Despite the Mets' high payroll, their absence from the playoffs underscores the importance of strategic spending and team balance. As payrolls continue to rise, teams will need to consider not just how much they spend, but also how they allocate their resources.
