Market Analysis: Mexican Markets: Insights from Experts
Mexico's economy is showing signs of resilience, but external factors continue to cast a shadow over its growth prospects.
According to recent forecasts, Mexico's GDP growth for 2025 is expected to range between 0.1% and 0.4%. The country's central bank (Banxico) has revised its growth forecast for 2025 down to 0.1%, while the OECD and Citi expect around 0.3%-0.4% growth for the year. Despite a stronger-than-expected 0.7% quarter-on-quarter GDP growth in Q2 2025, the annual growth remains modest and below the 1.5% seen in 2024.
The Mexican peso has appreciated, supporting trade competitiveness, but this has weakened the purchasing power of remittances, putting additional pressure on domestic consumption. Business sentiment and growth prospects remain vulnerable due to unresolved U.S.-Mexico trade negotiations and the potential enforcement of tariffs, which could impact key export sectors.
The stock market outlook is cautious, given these external risks and mixed economic signals. The S&P/BMV IPC, the main stock index, fell by 0.53% on Thursday to 58,167.27 points, marking its second day of losses. BANAMEX continues to expect GDP growth of 0.4% for 2025.
Meanwhile, the market is divided on an additional interest rate cut between October and December, following a September rate cut expectation. This is consistent with the expectation of two cuts for the rest of the year. BANORTE expects the downtrend in the S&P/BMV IPC to continue, with a breach of 58,000 points establishing a negative technical signal. Support for the index is located at 57,390 whole points, while resistance is situated at 58,700 units.
Next week, the National Institute of Statistics (INEGI) will release the final figures for the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of the second quarter. The peso, trading at 18.7193 units, appreciated by 0.37% compared to the LSEG reference price of 18.7880 pesos on Thursday. Wall Street anticipates a mixed opening with slight changes in major indices, though with a positive weekly balance.
The optimistic outlook for the meeting between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin later today has favored the peso, as investors maintain an optimistic outlook for the global economy. However, the ongoing trade tensions and uncertainties continue to pose a threat to Mexico's economic growth and stock market performance.
[1] Banxico (2025). Mexico's GDP growth forecast for 2025 cut to 0.1%. Retrieved from https://www.banxico.org.mx/
[2] OECD (2025). Mexico's GDP growth forecast for 2025 revised to 0.3%. Retrieved from https://www.oecd.org/mexico/
[3] Citi (2025). Mexico's GDP growth forecast for 2025 revised to 0.4%. Retrieved from https://www.citi.com/mexico/
[4] Reuters (2025). Mexico's economy: Cautious optimism amid external risks. Retrieved from https://www.reuters.com/
[5] INEGI (2025). Mexico's GDP growth for Q2 2025. Retrieved from https://www.inegi.org.mx/
- The latest forecasts from Banxico, OECD, and Citi indicate a possible growth in Mexico's economy, with predictions ranging from 0.1% to 0.4% for the year 2025, which could present opportunities for personal-finance management and investing in the business sector.
- With the ongoing negotiations between the U.S. and Mexico regarding trade and the potential enforcement of tariffs, the news about the future of financial markets in Mexico remains uncertain, making it crucial for individuals to stay informed about the latest updates in news and personal-finance strategies.
