Large-scale Ripple owners offload 160 million XRP: Is a bullish price surge still feasible?
In the past two weeks, whales have offloaded a significant amount of XRP, totalling 160 million units, according to data from TradingView and CryptoQuant. This move, however, seems to have had little impact on XRP's OI-Weighted Funding Rates, which currently stand at 0.0079%, indicating a balanced positioning among leveraged traders, as per derivatives data from CoinGlass.
The recent XRP trading activity suggests a cooling phase, with traders either locking in profits or pausing to wait for confirmation before re-entering. This restraint, in turn, signals a reduction in liquidation risks but also a notable hesitation among traders.
Neutral funding rates are a common indicator of this hesitancy, as they suggest that neither long nor short positions hold a significant advantage, keeping the market from overheating. This situation is further corroborated by XRP's Futures Volume Bubble Map, which shows a cooling of trading activity in Derivatives, indicating a pullback in momentum after the initial breakout.
The cooling phase is more likely to lead to a retest of the handle as support validation becomes critical. If the retest holds, the technical path toward $3.80 and $4.49 remains viable, confirming that the recent correction is more of a reset than a reversal.
However, if XRP fails to defend the retest, it could risk undermining the bullish setup and delay further momentum. In such a scenario, XRP may retest the upper boundary of the broken handle channel to confirm it as support. A retest of the handle's upper boundary appears likely, and holding this level could confirm new support.
It's worth noting that XRP has shown a cup and handle formation, with the handle breakout occurring through a descending channel. The key Fibonacci levels playing a role for XRP's potential development are the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement around $1.73 as a major support level and resistance/checkpoints between $3.10 and $3.40 before a possible rise to $3.60. Maintaining above $2.80 is also crucial to avoid further decline.
Currently, the Stoch RSI for XRP stands at 88.89, indicating extreme overbought conditions. This suggests that profit-taking is building in XRP, which could lead to a retracement. However, if buyers defend the retest, there is potential for XRP to advance toward $3.80 and $4.49.
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