Increase in Gasoline and Diesel Prices Observed in Russia by Rosstat
Rising Gasoline Prices in Russia: A Summer of Volatility
Gasoline prices in Russia have been on a steady rise over the past few years, with significant increases observed in the past year due to various factors.
According to recent data, the average price of AI-92 gasoline increased by 17 kopecks (+0.29%) to 57.83 rubles per liter. The average price of AI-98 gasoline followed suit, rising by 3 kopecks (+0.04%) to 84.54 rubles per liter.
These increases come amidst a backdrop of general price rises, with retail gasoline prices having risen by about 18% over the past year. Wholesale prices have also approached historic highs, with the wholesale price for AI-95 gasoline approaching RUB 73,000 per tonne (approx. US$890) in mid-2025.
The increase in prices is attributed to several factors, including rising seasonal demand, particularly for agricultural use, refinery repairs complicated by sanctions, and supply restrictions.
To address the volatility in the domestic fuel market, the Russian government imposed a temporary ban on gasoline exports until August 31st, 2025. This ban was later extended to include oil producers, preventing them from exporting gasoline in August and September 2025.
The export ban aims to curb domestic fuel price inflation amid refinery operational challenges and higher demand. However, the restrictions have caused some volatility and price spikes on domestic exchanges, with wholesale gasoline prices increasing sharply in 2025.
In terms of regional variations, prices in Moscow and St. Petersburg increased by 0.1% and 0.2% respectively during the same period. Conversely, prices fell in the Novgorod region by 0.1%.
The price increases were not uniform across the country, with gasoline prices rising in 75 regions of Russia, with the largest increase in Dagestan at 1.7%.
Economist Zalina Kazova predicts that gasoline prices in Russia will continue to rise in August 2025. She estimates that the price of AI-95 gasoline will increase by 10.2% compared to August 2024, to 60.2 rubles per liter. Similarly, she predicts that the price of AI-92 gasoline will increase by 9.5%, to 55.1 rubles per liter in August 2025.
In conclusion, the rising gasoline prices in Russia over the past few years have been driven by various factors, including seasonal demand, refinery issues, sanctions, and supply restrictions. The Russian government's export ban has been implemented to mitigate domestic price inflation during seasonal peaks, but it has also caused some volatility and price spikes on domestic exchanges. Economist Zalina Kazova predicts further increases in gasoline prices in August 2025.
The rising gasoline prices in Russia could potentially impact various sectors of the economy, such as the finance industry and energy sector, due to the increased costs of transportation and production.
Economist Zalina Kazova's prediction of further gasoline price increases in August 2025 could potentially lead to financial instability within the Russian economy, as well as increased energy costs for both domestic and industrial consumers.
