Harvard Economist Who Initially Forecasting Bitcoin's Valuation Larger at $100 Than the Controversial $100,000 Now Breaks Silence
In March 2018, renowned economist Kenneth Rogoff, a professor at Harvard University, made a bold prediction about Bitcoin to CNBC. He stated that it was "a lot more likely" for the cryptocurrency to plunge to $100 than surge to $10,000 a decade from then. Fast forward to 2021, and Bitcoin is trading at $113,260 after reaching a new record high of $124,128. However, Rogoff now admits that his prediction was too optimistic, particularly about US regulation.
Rogoff's statement went viral on social media, and he recently addressed his Bitcoin call on the X social media network. He argued that the main reasons for his prediction going wrong were the lack of "sensible" regulation and Bitcoin's primary use for money laundering and evading taxes. He also expressed scepticism about Bitcoin's ability to compete with fiat currencies as a transaction medium, stating that a global regulatory crackdown would make the price of the cryptocurrency plunge lower.
Meanwhile, Bitcoin analyst Peter Brandt has revised his own predictions about the cryptocurrency's peak. After a recent price drop below $113,000, Brandt now claims the odds of Bitcoin peaking could be higher. He previously claimed there was a 30% chance Bitcoin had peaked.
Bitcoin's recent underperformance appears to be in tandem with the Nasdaq index. In March 2018, Bitcoin was trading at nearly $20,000, but in May of the same year, it was trading at roughly $11,000 after a substantial correction. The cryptocurrency went on to plunge to $3,112 in December 2018 following a bear market.
However, long-term predictions for Bitcoin remain bullish. It is predicted to reach around $112,213 by the end of 2025, possibly growing to approximately $182,447 by the end of 2029. These predictions come with a caveat, as Bitcoin may face a consolidation phase and profit-taking risks in the near term.
Despite the regulatory challenges and volatility, Bitcoin continues to attract attention and investment. Its recent price surge and record high have reignited the debate about its potential role in the global financial system. As Rogoff's prediction shows, making accurate predictions about Bitcoin is a challenging task, but its impact on the financial world is undeniable.
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