Expanding Influence in the South Caucasus Region Targeted by U.S.
The South Caucasus region, home to the nations of Armenia and Azerbaijan, is experiencing a significant shift in its geopolitical landscape. This transformation is largely due to the changing international relations, with these countries seeking closer ties with Europe and the United States, while Russia's influence appears to be waning.
Azerbaijan, in particular, is keen on strengthening its relationship with the U.S., especially under the Trump administration. The U.S., in turn, has substantial interests in Azerbaijan, given its strategic location and its role as an important energy partner for Europe through projects like the South Caucasus Pipeline, the Trans-Anatolian Pipeline, and the Trans-Adriatic Pipeline.
Meanwhile, Azerbaijan's efforts to forge ties with Western countries have not gone unnoticed by Moscow, the most likely external disruptor in the region. Concerned about its declining influence, Russia seems prepared to take steps to preserve its authority.
Armenia, on the other hand, finds itself aligned closely with U.S. interests. Its current government's efforts to resolve the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict with Azerbaijan and normalize relations with Turkey can enhance regional stability. This could potentially pave the way for deeper engagement with the U.S.
Georgia, too, is navigating its own path. While a more Western orientation remains popular among many Georgians, the likelihood of a government that would embrace a complete break with the current Russian government is low. However, the Georgian government introduced a new educational program in 2021, requiring the Chinese language as a second language in Georgian schools, indicating a growing interest in fostering ties with China.
The U.S. seems hesitant to fully compete with Russia for influence in the region. Instead, its goal appears to be more focused on connectivity with the South Caucasus and Central Asia, with the aim of fostering diversified supply chains, opening new markets, and securing energy and resource access for Western countries.
One such initiative is the Middle Corridor (Trans-Caspian International Transport Route), which aims to link Chinese and European markets via Central Asia and the Caucasus. This route could potentially provide an alternative to the traditional trade routes, offering increased resilience and diversification to Western economies.
In conclusion, the South Caucasus region is at a pivotal point, with its nations exploring new avenues for cooperation and partnership. As the U.S. and Europe seek to engage more deeply with these countries, Russia looks on, ready to protect its interests. The coming years will be crucial in shaping the future of this strategically important region.
