Exceptionally poor statistics for the North Baltic Waterway Project

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Navigating the tumultuous waters: The Kiel Canal's quandary

The figures for the Kiel Canal, a vital artery connecting the North Sea and the Baltic Sea, have seen a significant drop, sparking concerns among canal authorities and shipowners.

Last year, the Kiel Canal Authority grappled with a sobering statistic: less than 25,000 ships sailed through the canal for the first time since its inception. This revelation, reported by Kiel News, marks a noticeable downward trend that has been ongoing for over a decade. In the past, the canal's traffic statistics would typically be shared with the public by mid-January or early February. However, this year, the organization is yet to release the figures, leaving a cloud of uncertainty hanging over the waterway.

"The number of vessels passing through the canal has clearly decreased," asserts Jens-Broder Knudsen, Chairman of the Initiative Kiel Canal. Ship brokers Sartori & Berger and UCA United Canal Agency have reported a drop of up to ten percent in ship passages.

The decline in shipping traffic, however, may not be all doom and gloom.

In an interview, Knudsen shares a glimmer of hope: "If, as planned, the expansion of the canal is completed and the speed limit can be lifted, it should make the canal more appealing to shipowners again."Since July 1, 2023, a speed reduction from 15 to 12 km/h has been in effect for all ships on the canal due to ongoing construction work. Fortunately, progress on repairing the eroded banks is steady, but a three-month closure of a lock chamber in Brunsbüttel looms, necessitating the renewal of rails for the gate undercarriages of a sliding gate. "These closures don't make things easy, but they're crucial for the long-term health of the canal," Knudsen remarks.

The waterway's struggles extend beyond just the current year.

The size of the ships traversing the canal has been gradually shrinking over the past decade. The smaller vessels impact the earnings of the approximately 300 canal pilots, whose fees are based on the size of the middle ship. "We've certainly felt the squeeze. The figures for January so far have shown no signs of improvement, but there is a silver lining," says David-Christopher Müller, Second Elder of the NOKII pilotage association from Kiel.

By improving the predictability of the canal passage, the industry could experience a reversal of the declining trend in ship passages. "Reliability plays a pivotal role in shipping decisions," stresses Jan Klein of ship brokers UCA United Canal Agency.

The impending release of all traffic data for the canal will shed more light on the situation.besides the number of ships, the quantities of goods transported and the size of the ships are significant parameters. Preliminary analyses suggest that there might be considerable declines in these areas, as well.

It appears that a complex interplay of economic, environmental, regulatory, competitive, vessel-size, and geopolitical factors have contributed to the decline in ship passages through the Kiel Canal over the past decade. To weather this storm, canal authorities will undoubtedly have to navigate a challenging course to secure the future of this vital waterway.

Source: Kiel News from 15.02.2025 by Frank Behling

Insight: The Kiel Canal, one of the busiest artificial waterways in the world, has been grappling with a decline in ship passages due to a combination of factors, including economic downturns, changes in trade patterns, stricter environmental regulations, canal size and draft limitations, competitive routes, emerging vessel efficiency, and geopolitical tensions.

Concerns rise in the public transit sector as the decline in shipping traffic through the Kiel Canal could potentially affect transportation networks linked to it, raising questions about the industry's financial stability and the overall efficiency of goods transportation.
The arena of finance is closely monitoring the situation at the Kiel Canal, understanding that the drop in the quantities of goods transported and the decrease in the sizes of ships could have significant rippotential impacts on industries heavily relying on transportation, such as manufacturing and logistics.