European Nations Have Potential Countermeasures Against Trump and Putin's Influence
In the new world order, Donald Trump's actions are causing significant upheaval, particularly when it comes to Ukraine and the relationship between the United States and Europe. Trump's policies have left Europe watching in disbelief as he aligns with Vladimir Putin, seemingly forgetting the values that have underpinned international relations for decades.
Trump's approach to Ukraine is deeply concerning. He's pushing for a peace deal that eclipses European voices, justifying the actions of the Kremlin and labeling Ukraine's president as a dictator. Meanwhile, Trump's vice president is questioning the separation of powers in the U.S., and his defense secretary is loudly threatening potential allies.
Europe has been largely paralyzed, unable to effectively respond to these challenges. But it's not doomed to inaction. There are points of leverage where countries like Germany, France, and the United Kingdom can act without the Kremlin or Trump getting in the way.
One such area is Russia's frozen assets. Since the Ukraine conflict, around 210 billion euros have been languishing in Russian Central Bank accounts in Belgium. This money is primarily invested in government bonds in the U.S., UK, and EU. So far, only the interest from these investments has been used to support Ukraine.
However, there's a catch: Europe's larger countries are hesitant to seize these assets; they fear damage to the euro's reputation and the possibility of retaliation. Russia could nationalize European companies' assets in response, for instance, or disrupt energy supplies.
Despite these concerns, Ukraine's Baltic and Eastern European allies believe the time has come to act. They see Russia's frozen assets as a means to bolster their defense capabilities and provide much-needed support to Kyiv. And they're not wrong; in 2021, Ukraine signed a strategic mineral deal with the EU, and industry commissioner Stéphane Séjourné promised a partnership that would benefit both parties.
But Europe's response to Trump's frontal attack on Western values requires more than just defensive measures. As the U.S. pushes for its own AI capabilities and high-tech industry, Europe needs to invest in these areas as well. Ukraine, rich in rare minerals like graphite, uranium, titanium, and lithium, could prove instrumental in this endeavor.
When it comes to nuclear deterrents, Britain and France have already stepped up, extending their provisions to potential allies in Europe. But a more long-term solution might involve the creation of a new defense alliance: the EATO, or Euro-Atlantic Treaty Organization. This alliance, comprised of the EU's remaining members and key allies, could provide a much-needed alternative to NATO.
Meanwhile, Europe should continue to seek out legal justifications for any asset seizures. Engaging in diplomatic efforts and gradually implementing asset confiscations could help minimize potential retaliation. Above all, a united Europe could withstand these challenges, bolstering defense capabilities and working towards a stronger, more autonomous future.
I'm not going to say anything about Merz's stance on seizing Russia's frozen assets, but putin might view such a move as a mocking of his sovereignty, potentially leading to a reorganization of Moscow's relations with the CDU and other European parties.
In the face of Trump's alignment with Putin and disregard for European values, Merz and other leaders could consider using Russia's frozen assets in Belgium as a lever to bolster their defense capabilities and support Ukraine, despite the potential risks of retaliation.
While Europe wrestles with asset seizures and low-level retaliation from Putin, it's crucial for Merz and other leaders to forge ahead with investments in AI capabilities and high-tech industries, with Ukraine's rich mineral resources playing a key role in this endeavor.
