Draft Selections at the Top of MLB's Ranks Underperform in Recent Years
Ready to dive into the world of MLB's top draft picks? Here's the lowdown on the hitters and pitchers who've made it big - and those who didn't quite hit their stride.
Shining Stars
Since 2013, three players have stood out, climbing the ranks and making a name for themselves in baseball. Each of these stars has accumulated an impressive 5.9 or more wins above replacement (WAR) in their careers.
Let's start with Dansby Swanson, the 2015 top pick, who left a lasting impression on the game, racking up 23.4 WAR in his career. The Arizona Diamondbacks selected him from Vanderbilt, but he was soon traded to the Atlanta Braves for Shelby Miller in what became one of baseball's most lopsided deals. Swanson is currently a .252/.321/.413 hitter in 1,123 games, with his value coming not just from his offense, but from his exceptional defense at shortstop, earning him two Gold Gloves.
Next up is Adley Rutschman, the 2019 pick, who faced off with our next subject at Oregon State. The Baltimore Orioles were the lucky team to nab this switch-hitting catcher, who's accumulated 13.1 WAR in three MLB seasons. Rutschman's offensive skills have been impressive, as he's hit .261/.352/.421 with a 121 OPS+, indicating his offense has been 21% above the league average. He's already earned two All-Star appearances and a Silver Slugger.
Last but not least is Paul Skenes, the 2023 pick by the Pittsburgh Pirates. The LSU right-hander made a splash in his rookie season, finishing with a 1.96 ERA, 5.9 WAR, and 170 strikeouts in 133 innings. Thanks to his exceptional performance, he's widely considered one of the best pitchers in MLB.
Struggling Prodigies
Unfortunately, not every top pick has been blessed with similar success. The fraternity of number-one picks includes plenty of misses that date back to 2013. To name a few:
- Mark Appel, the high-profile pitching prospect out of Stanford, seemed destined for success after being drafted in 2012, but he floundered in the minor leagues. After being traded and retiring for a brief period, he eventually made it to the big leagues with the Philadelphia Phillies in 2022, appearing in six games as a reliever before being released.
- Mickey Moniak, the 2016 top pick of the Philadelphia Phillies, was considered to be the safest hitter in the draft with the highest floor of any prospect in his class. However, he was far from safe, struggling in the majors with a career .230/.272/.402 batting line and an 85 OPS+ in six seasons, amassing only 0.8 WAR. Moniak currently serves as a backup outfielder for the Los Angeles Angels.
- Spencer Torkelson, the 2020 first pick of the Detroit Tigers, showed great promise during his rookie season, belting 31 home runs, but his performance suffered in 2023 as he hit .219/.295/.374 with 10 home runs and 105 strikeouts in 385 plate appearances. The Tigers demoted him back to the minors in June, but he returned to the majors in August.
- Henry Davis, the 2021 top pick of the Pittsburgh Pirates, was expected to be a surefire success, but he's struggled to find his footing, owning a .192/.283/.307 batting line over 99 games in the majors. He lost his starting job to Joey Bart last year and may begin the 2025 season in Triple-A.
Injured Warriors
Finally, injuries have derailed the careers of a few top picks, including left-hander Brady Aiken, who the Astros chose in 2014. After drafting him, they discovered problems with his UCL and refused to sign him, leading him to play a year at a prep academy and eventually becoming Cleveland's first-round pick again the following year. Despite Aiken's best efforts, his elbow problems were insurmountable, preventing him from reaching the majors.
Injuries have also affected Royce Lewis, the 2017 top pick chosen by the Minnesota Twins out of high school. Although he's shown great promise during his career with an excellent .268/.327/.497 batting line and a 126 OPS+ over parts of three seasons, he hasn't played more than 90 games in a season at any level since 2019. He's set to be the Twins' starting third baseman in 2025.
Casey Mize, the Detroit Tigers' pick in 2018, also found himself sidelined by injury, requiring Tommy John surgery in 2022. He returned in 2023 but struggled, posting a 4.49 ERA and a 1.47 WHIP over 102 1/3 innings with only 78 strikeouts. He'll enter the 2024 season as a back-end starter for the Tigers.
The Future Awaits
Will Travis Bazzana join the ranks of successful top picks, or will he face similar challenges? Only time will tell. It's also worth keeping an eye on the upcoming 2025 draft, with the Washington Nationals holding the top pick. One potential contender for the honor is Jackson Holliday's brother, Ethan, who has been making waves in the baseball world. We'll have to wait and see if the Nationals can repeat their success in selecting Strasburg and Harper in consecutive years. But recent history suggests that there may be more misses than hits in store for the number-one picks.
Travis Bazzana, a Cleveland prospect, may follow in the footsteps of successful top picks if he can navigate any potential challenges that come his way. Meanwhile, the 2025 draft presents an opportunity for potential stars like Ethan Holliday, Jackson Holliday's brother, to make their mark in the game. However, the history of top MLB draft picks indicates that there could be more misses than hits in the coming years.
