CryptoQuant forecasts protracted Bitcoin price adjustment spanning several months.
Bitcoin's market in August 2025 presents a mixed but cautiously optimistic picture, as indicated by a variety of factors including whale activity, miner sell-offs, and options traders' expectations of a pullback.
After reaching a record high of $123,300 on July 14, Bitcoin's price has drifted lower, prompting on-chain data firm CryptoQuant to report a pullback on Thursday. This pullback is not unprecedented, as the third quarter typically produces minimal median returns for Bitcoin, aligning with historical performance.
The current market standoff is largely due to profit-taking among whales and miners releasing coins into the market. Whale behaviour is particularly notable, with some large holders (Satoshi-era whales) becoming more active in buying, signalling confidence in Bitcoin as an inflation hedge and a store of value amid economic uncertainty. However, this buying is countered by profit-taking, which introduces selling pressure that can cap upside momentum and trigger pullbacks.
Sean Dawson, head of research at on-chain options platform Derive, stated that the profit-taking came from both old and new whales. Institutions are also de-risking their Bitcoin holdings, suggesting they are content with their returns.
Options traders are reportedly expecting a pullback or at least some near-term price consolidation, consistent with the modest price ceiling forecasts just above $114K and a lack of aggressive breakout signals. This cautious stance aligns with the recent market data showing low volatility and limited inflows. In an effort to prepare for a rough two months, these traders are buying put options for August and September, anticipating a price reversal of somewhere between 10-30% over the next month.
Despite the current pullback, Bitcoin's fourth quarter typically delivers the strongest gains, with a median return of 52%. CryptoQuant expects renewed accumulation and a subsequent breakout to a new all-time high. Charles Edwards believes Bitcoin is undervalued based on his Energy Value model, which ties Bitcoin's intrinsic value to the energy used by its mining network.
In conclusion, Bitcoin's market outlook for August 2025 is one of guarded optimism with a balanced mix of buying and selling forces keeping prices in a range-bound pattern, pending a catalyst that might drive a strong directional move. The current standoff between profit-taking whales and long-term holders could shape the market for months, but the potential for strong gains in the fourth quarter remains.
- The cautious stance of options traders, expecting a pullback or price consolidation, mirrors the modest price ceiling forecasts for Bitcoin, which hover just above $114K.
- Large Bitcoin holders, including Satoshi-era whales, are active in buying Bitcoin, indicating confidence in it as an inflation hedge and a store of value amid economic uncertainty.
- Charles Edwards believes that Bitcoin is undervalued based on his Energy Value model, which links Bitcoin's intrinsic value to the energy used by its mining network.
- Bitcoin's fourth quarter historically delivers the strongest gains, with a median return of 52%, signifying the potential for strong gains in the last quarter of 2025.
