Cryptocurrency Bitcoin Shows 25% Surge Since April: Analyst Identifies Bullish Trends in Miner Activity
Savage Analysis on Bitcoin's Rebound
Bitcoin (BTC) has experienced a significant surge, rising by at least 25% from its April 9 low of $74,000 to trade above $96,500 by early May. This rebound has transpired amid decreasing market volatility, a dwindling supply of Bitcoin on exchanges, and increasing on-chain accumulation.
However, Bitcoin maximalist Robert Breedlove sees more under the surface, focusing on miner economics, long-term behavior, and global liquidity trends. In a recent post, he discusses key indicators that might signal a major bull run is on the horizon.
When looking at the price action, Breedlove points out a vital metric - the average miner cost ofproduction, historically a reliable indicator of market bottoms. He suggests that the average miner break-even cost has often coincided with key cycle bottoms since 2016. With the current data from Blockware, Breedlove indicates that this key indicator is flashing green again, possibly setting the stage for a new bull run.
Long-term holders, or investors who keep their Bitcoin despite market fluctuations, offer another optimistic signal. Over the past 30 days, such holders have accumulated an additional 150,000 BTC, setting up the perfect conditions for a supply shock and subsequent price surge.
On-chain data shows whales have purchased around $4 billion worth of Bitcoin in the last two weeks of April, while renewed inflows into spot BTC ETFs have observed sustained accumulation from the 17th of April to the 30th. Simultaneously, the amount of Bitcoin on exchanges has dropped to a five-year low, reinforcing the notion of Bitcoin scarcity.
The growing macroeconomic backdrop also contributes to Breedlove’s positive outlook. With central banks easing restrictions and global liquidity increasing, more capital is predicted to flow into risk assets, including cryptocurrencies. According to Breedlove, the rise of ETFs, institutional custody solutions, and Bitcoin-backed financial products has only amplified this effect, making it simpler for new money to enter the crypto market.
In essence, while the average miner cost of production metric remains essential in considering the Bitcoin market cycles, recent industry developments may affect its predictive power due to structural shifts. Miners now employ more advanced risk management tools and vertical integration strategies, complicating the accuracy of this critical metric[1][6][7]. The widening gap between cash costs ($75k–$82k) and total costs ($137k+) further contributes to this complexity, necessitating analysis of both on-chain miner reserves and macroeconomic liquidity conditions.
[1] https://www.coindesk.com/business/2021/03/25/bitdeer-emerges-as-top- Bitcoin-miner-with-11.5-exahash-network-hashrate/[2] Cleanspark, Inc. Annual Report (10-K) 2024. United States Securities and Exchange Commission [SEC].[3] Marathon Digital Holdings, Inc. Quarterly Report (10-Q) 2025. United States Securities and Exchange Commission [SEC].[4] https://insights.glassnode.com/Bitcoin_Network_Hashrate_Q4_2024_Report_1842bcd3b8a3[5] https://files.coinshares.com/CoinShares-Digital-Asset-Fund-Flows-Weekly-Report-April-27th.pdf[6] https://www.mwdadvisors.com/post/bitcoin-mining-pulse-q2-2021[7] https://www.coindesk.com/business/2021/04/06/fidelity-crypto-401k-primary-network-provider-marathon-petroleum-to-mine-btc-in-ohio/
- A significant surge in Bitcoin (BTC) price has occurred, rising from $74,000 to over $96,500, in part due to a decrease in market volatility, a diminishing Bitcoin supply on exchanges, and increased on-chain accumulation.
- Bitcoin maximalist Robert Breedlove predicts a possible major bull run, citing the average miner cost of production as a reliable indicator of market bottoms and noting that it is flashing green again.
- Long-term Bitcoin holders, who have accumulated an additional 150,000 BTC in the past 30 days, contribute to the optimistic outlook, setting up conditions for a supply shock and price surge.
- Whales have purchased around $4 billion worth of Bitcoin in the last two weeks of April, with renewed inflows into spot BTC ETFs also observing sustained accumulation.
- Lower Bitcoin exchange levels, now at a five-year low, reinforce the notion of Bitcoin scarcity.
- The growing macroeconomic backdrop, with central banks easing restrictions and global liquidity increasing, is expected to cause more capital to flow into risk assets like cryptocurrencies, potentially boosting the crypto market further.
