Changes in the value of this altcoin coincide with each US election.
The world of cryptocurrencies has been witnessing an intriguing dance with the U.S. presidential elections in recent years. Bitcoin may often take the limelight, but altcoins like XRP, Solana, Cardano, Toncoin, and Dogecoin have proven to react with equal, or even greater, intensity.
Volatility Around Elections
As U.S. presidential elections approach, these cryptocurrencies tend to exhibit increased price volatility due to uncertainty about future regulatory frameworks and economic policies. Investor sentiment may rapidly change based on election results and policy announcements, causing abrupt price swings.
Regulation as a Major Factor
Regulatory policies or announcements around election times significantly affect volatility, especially for assets like XRP, which has been notably impacted by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) actions. For example, following the SEC's 2020 case against Ripple, XRP's market cap fell sharply by 63%, highlighting how crypto-specific regulatory enforcement can create intense price movements, particularly during politically sensitive periods.
Geopolitical and Macroeconomic Influences
Prices can also fluctuate due to geopolitical events or macro-level tensions, which often coincide with or influence election sentiment. For example, in 2025, during Middle East tensions and U.S. tariff announcements, cryptocurrencies such as Solana and Dogecoin dropped sharply, but rebounded on positive geopolitical developments like ceasefires.
24/7 Trading Without Circuit Breakers
Unlike traditional markets that have trading hours and circuit breakers, crypto trades continuously without pauses, amplifying volatility during high anxiety or news-driven periods like elections. This lack of trading halts can result in more abrupt and extreme price changes around election events or regulatory news.
Market Sentiment and Institutional Interest
Growing institutional acceptance, as exemplified by corporate treasury interest and certain government stances toward crypto, adds complexity to volatility. While institutional funds may stabilize some assets over time, short-term reactions to election outcomes and regulatory signals can still cause pronounced price movements.
While specific data on Toncoin’s reaction to U.S. elections is limited in the current sources, it is reasonable to infer it follows similar patterns of volatility influenced by the same regulatory and geopolitical factors affecting other altcoins.
The Role of Elon Musk and Political Backing
Elon Musk's closeness to Donald Trump favored Dogecoin, causing a 24% increase in its price. Moreover, political and media backing has proven to be a powerful engine for Dogecoin's price movements. The creation of the "Department of Government Efficiency" (D.O.G.E.) and Musk's public winks from Trump contributed to Dogecoin's price increase.
Understanding these patterns can be a strategic advantage for investors in the crypto market. XRP, Solana, Cardano, Toncoin, and Dogecoin typically experience increased volatility around U.S. presidential elections, driven by heightened uncertainty and market reactions to regulatory policies and geopolitical developments. It's not about speculating on election results, but anticipating how each political scenario might impact specific assets.
For instance, after Donald Trump's victory in 2024, XRP soared by more than 150%, reaching $1.45. Similarly, Toncoin surpassed $5.30 and showed signs of a possible 45% rally after the presidential pardon of Ross Ulbricht and the reversal of the Tornado Cash ban. Cardano showed a 12% recovery in the week following the 2024 elections, driven by optimism about a possible more friendly regulatory environment.
In a crypto ecosystem increasingly influenced by politics, reading these cycles is as important as technical analysis. In future election cycles, altcoins that depend on regulation, institutional adoption, and political backing are likely to remain sensitive to changes in the White House.
- The volatility of altcoins like XRP, Solana, Cardano, Toncoin, and Dogecoin can intensify before U.S. presidential elections due to potential regulatory changes and policy announcements, leading to swift price changes.
- Geopolitical events, such as Middle East tensions or tariff announcements, can also affect the prices of cryptocurrencies like Solana and Dogecoin, causing sharp drops and rebounding on positive developments.
- Institutional investors play a role in crypto market volatility, with corporate treasury interest and government stances towards crypto adding complexity to price movements, even as they may provide long-term stability.
