Bitcoin's current gap setting the course for a potential surge to $130K
In the world of cryptocurrency, the signs of a potential Bitcoin bull run are starting to emerge, as indicated by a combination of on-chain and derivatives metrics. Historically, these conditions have preceded Bitcoin's sharpest bull runs.
One key factor is the halving cycles, which have traditionally marked the start of major bull markets. Bitcoin's programmed halving events, occurring roughly every four years, have a significant impact on the market. After a halving, the market typically goes through a phase of volatility and consolidation, followed by explosive price appreciation. For instance, the 2012 halving led to a peak at $1,152 about 14 months later, while the 2016 halving saw a peak near $20,000 after approximately 17 months, and the 2020 halving led to a peak over $67,000 11 months after[1].
Post-halving bull runs often follow a retracement where prices consolidate before ascending again. Historically, these bull markets last about 12 to 18 months post-halving, although timing can vary due to external events and adoption waves. Current projections for the 2024 halving suggest the bull run could climax in late 2025 or early 2026[1][2].
Another important factor is rising on-chain confidence, reflected in holder sentiment and activity metrics. Recent sharp increases in on-chain confidence, coupled with narrowing spreads between spot and derivatives prices, are signals of building market conviction and impending breakouts. Such conditions were evident before previous momentum surges in early 2024 and 2025[4].
The derivatives market is also showing early signs of catching up. A narrowing gap between spot prices and perpetual futures reflects growing alignment between cash and derivatives markets, indicating stronger market confidence and reduced arbitrage pressure. Increased institutional demand, as shown by significant ETF inflows and short squeeze-driven liquidations, has historically boosted bullish momentum[3][4].
Macro factors such as expanding global liquidity, growing institutional adoption, and weakening fiat currency conditions have also fueled past bull runs. For example, the 2025 bull run has been supported by record ETF inflows, a "liquidity supercycle" driven by global money supply growth, and technical momentum breaking key price resistance levels[3].
Recent data shows that the Perpetual-Spot Price Gap on Binance remains in negative territory, but this negative gap has tightened dramatically in recent weeks, a sign that the derivatives market may be catching up. The price action points to strength, not exhaustion[5].
In short, historical precursors to Bitcoin's sharpest bull runs include halving events followed by consolidation and volatility phases, rising on-chain holder confidence, tightening spot-derivatives spreads, growing institutional flows, and supportive macro liquidity conditions. These combined factors have historically set the stage for Bitcoin’s explosive upward price moves[1][3][4]. Whether these conditions will lead to another Bitcoin bull run remains to be seen, but analysts are keeping a close eye on the developments.
[1] Blockware Solutions, "Bitcoin Halving History: What Happens After Each Halving?" (2021). [2] CoinDesk, "Bitcoin's 2024 Halving: What to Expect and How to Prepare" (2022). [3] CoinShares, "Global Digital Asset Fund Flows Week 17, 2025" (2025). [4] CryptoQuant, "Market Analysis: Bitcoin's On-Chain Confidence Signals Bullish Momentum" (2025). [5] Binance, "Binance Perpetual-Spot Price Gap Data" (2025).
- The current signs of rising on-chain confidence, such as increasing holder sentiment and activity metrics, are reminiscent of the conditions seen before previous Bitcoin's momentum surges, implying a possible bull run for the crypto token.
- institutional demand, as observed through significant ETF inflows and short squeeze-driven liquidations, has historically amplified bullish momentum in the world of Bitcoin finance, which could be a factor in the potential Bitcoin bull run.
- The tightening gap between spot prices and perpetual futures, a sign of growing alignment between cash and derivatives markets, is an early indication that the crypto market, including BTC and other tokens, might be gearing up for a bull run.
