Bitcoin's 4-year cycle may be approaching an end, according to some analysts, who suggest a significant change could be imminent.
In the ever-evolving world of cryptocurrency, the traditional four-year Bitcoin halving cycle is increasingly being debated as losing relevance. This shift in focus is attributed to macro trends and institutional forces shaping the market in 2025.
The halving mechanism, which reduces miner rewards and Bitcoin issuance every four years, continues to promote scarcity and inflation control by design. The last halving occurred in April 2024, with the next expected in 2028. Historically, halving events have triggered bullish price runs, peaking about a year after, as seen in the 2013, 2017, and 2021 cycles. This cyclical pattern has become a market norm, influencing investor expectations.
However, the maturation of the market with institutional investors, Bitcoin ETFs (from 2024), and improved regulation means new forces are shaping demand, liquidity, and trading beyond halving-driven scarcity. Matt Hougan, Bitwise CIO, argues that the classic halving cycles now exert only half the price impact of prior cycles. Macro conditions such as global interest rates and regulatory clarity are more influential today. Institutional inflows from pensions, endowments, and Wall Street players are expected to fundamentally shift Bitcoin’s market dynamics over the next 5-10 years.
Some analysts believe the cycle might still have influence, with potential tops predicted for late 2025. However, it is widely recognized that ETFs and institutional factors introduce new, long-term trends that can overshadow the four-year cycle. Crypto analyst CryptoIRB argues that the rise of ETFs strengthens the Bitcoin halving cycle by aligning it with the traditional finance world, which also operates in multi-year patterns.
Jason Williams, on the other hand, argues that the Bitcoin 4-year cycle is over due to the increasing holdings of Bitcoin by the top 100 treasury companies, which now hold nearly 1 million BTC. Despite this, Hougan expects long-term forces to define Bitcoin's future, predicting steady, sustained growth rather than a super-cycle in 2026.
As of 2025, institutional adoption is evident, with ETFs averaging $403M daily inflows. Macro tailwinds like potential rate cuts could continue to support Bitcoin's growth. The classic 4-year Bitcoin halving cycle is being questioned for its relevance, but it has not completely disappeared either. If the historical pattern holds true, Bitcoin could head into a bear market after Q4.
Investors should keep an eye on ETF inflows, regulatory clarity, and macroeconomic conditions for long-term BTC valuation. Bitcoin remains a strong long-term asset due to institutional adoption, corporate treasury holdings, and macroeconomic factors. The old halving cycle is no longer the sole driver of Bitcoin's market moves, but it has not completely disappeared either.
References:
[1] CoinDesk (2025). The Bitcoin Halving Cycle: Losing Its Bite? [Online]. Available: https://www.coindesk.com/bitcoin-halving-cycle-losing-its-bite
[2] Investopedia (2025). Bitcoin Halving: What It Is and Why It Matters. [Online]. Available: https://www.investopedia.com/terms/b/bitcoin-halving.asp
[3] Hougan, M. (2025). The Future of Bitcoin: Institutional Adoption and Beyond. [Online]. Available: https://www.bitwiseinvestments.com/blog/the-future-of-bitcoin-institutional-adoption-and-beyond
[4] Williams, J. (2025). The End of the Bitcoin 4-Year Cycle: A New Era Begins. [Online]. Available: https://www.jasonwilliamscrypto.com/the-end-of-the-bitcoin-4-year-cycle-a-new-era-begins
[5] CryptoIRB (2025). The Impact of ETFs on the Bitcoin Halving Cycle. [Online]. Available: https://www.cryptoirb.com/impact-of-etfs-on-the-bitcoin-halving-cycle
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