Anticipated US Consumer Data Levels in Preparation for Investor Analysis
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) is set to publish the latest consumer price data this afternoon, a release eagerly awaited by investors for its insights into the state of the economy.
The upcoming inflation data provides crucial information about the cost of living in the United States, and its publication is significant for the U.S. economy.
According to economists' expectations, the annual inflation rate is projected to accelerate to 2.8% in July 2025, up from 2.7% in June. Monthly CPI is expected to rise by 0.2%, slightly below June’s 0.3% gain. Core inflation, which excludes food and energy, is anticipated to edge up to 3.0% year-over-year with a 0.3% monthly increase.
DER AKTIONÄR has shared these expectations, revealing that Fannie Mae has raised its CPI forecast to 3.3% year-over-year for Q4 2025, up from 3.0%. Core CPI is also expected at 3.3% for 2025, falling to 2.6% in 2026. RBC Economics expects both headline and core CPI to exceed 3% by the end of 2025, characterising the outlook as “stagflation-lite,” with inflation accelerating across many categories despite some moderating areas like food and energy.
The BLS data for July 2025 showed the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.2% month-over-month (seasonally adjusted) and 2.7% year-over-year (not seasonally adjusted). Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, increased 0.3% month-over-month and 3.1% year-over-year. These increases were driven mainly by shelter, used cars and trucks, airline fares, and household furnishings, while energy prices fell 1.1% for the month, including a 2.2% decline in gasoline prices.
The next CPI release from the BLS, for August 2025, is scheduled for September 11, 2025. As the data is released, investors and economists alike will be closely watching the figures to gauge the health of the U.S. economy.
| Measure | July 2025 Actual (BLS) | Economist Expectations (July 2025) | 2025 Forecast (Q4/Q4) | |-----------------------|-----------------------|----------------------------------|-------------------------------| | Monthly CPI change | +0.2% | +0.2% (estimated) | — | | Annual CPI inflation | 2.7% | 2.8% | 3.3% (Fannie Mae forecast) | | Annual Core CPI | 3.1% | ~3.0% | 3.3% (Fannie Mae forecast) |
The upcoming CPI release from the BLS, for August 2025, is significant for both investors and economists as they monitor its impact on the cost of living in the United States, which is a key aspect of the nation's overall business environment. The projected annual inflation rate for Q4 2025, according to DER AKTIONÄR and Fannie Mae, is expected to be 3.3%, while RBC Economics predicts it may even exceed 3% – a trend that could potentially influence overall finance and business decisions.
