Anticipated Oil Prices: August 2025 through July 2026 Forecast
In the global oil market, the prevailing trend favours gradual price compression driven by expanded supply and softening demand fundamentals. According to the Energy Information Administration (EIA), International Energy Agency (IEA), and OPEC, collectively, global demand growth is expected to range from 0.7 to 1.3 million barrels per day (mb/d) in 2025 and 2026.
The Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) anticipates an annual growth of 1.3 mb/d across both years, particularly in non-OECD regions. The EIA forecasts Brent averaging around $69 in 2025, with WTI near $65 bbl, and a decline to $58 bbl for Brent and $55-56 bbl for WTI in 2026. Goldman Sachs predicts Brent to average $63 and WTI to average $59 for 2025.
The forecast suggests a gradual decline from late 2025 to mid-2026, but it's important to note that short-term volatility, such as $80-100 USD/barrel, is possible due to conflict escalation. However, severe disruptions are unlikely to occur. Oil markets are expected to have moderate fundamentals in the second half of 2025, with Brent averaging between $66 and $69 USD/barrel, and WTI crude around $63 and $65 USD/barrel.
The EIA also anticipates non-OPEC+ supply and NGL growth of 1.4 to 1.8 mb/d in 2025 and 0.9 mb/d in 2026. The IEA anticipates demand growth of around 700 kb/d in 2025 and again in 2026, led by emerging markets such as India and China.
It's worth mentioning that the projections do not account for any severe disruptions that may cause significant price increases. The projections consider oversupply trends, subdued demand forecast, and moderate geopolitical risk premiums. OECD inventories are likely to grow from 61 to 66 days of supply by end-2026.
However, specific analysis and predicted oil price trajectory for the second half of 2025 and mid-2026 from Dr. Gil Feiler could not be found in the available search results. If you have access to his reports or analysis, sharing those could enable a more precise response. Otherwise, it's important to remember that specific outlooks require direct data from the analyst.
In conclusion, the global oil market is expected to experience moderate fundamentals and gradual price compression in the coming years. However, short-term volatility remains a possibility due to geopolitical risks.
- The business outlook for the oil industry indicates a gradual decline in prices from late 2025 to mid-2026, with Brent averaging between $66 and $69 USD/barrel and WTI crude around $63 and $65 USD/barrel in the second half of 2025.
- The entertainment sector might find interest in the impending softening demand fundamentals in the global oil market, as this could potentially contribute to a decrease in energy costs related to transportation and production.
- The news media can report on the historical trends of the global oil market, citing the anticipated annual growth of 1.3 million barrels per day (mb/d) by the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) across 2025 and 2026.
- The finance industry should track the Energy Information Administration's (EIA) predictions for Brent and WTI prices in 2025, as these projections indicate average prices of $69 and $65 bbl for Brent and $65 bbl for WTI, respectively.
