Anticipated Lowering: Experts Forecast Decline in 10-Year Treasury Yield within the Coming Year, Despite Trump's Tariff Warnings
The 10-year Treasury yield, a significant benchmark for various financial products including mortgages, has been a topic of interest among investors and analysts. In a recent survey conducted by Bankrate, several experts shared their predictions for the future of the 10-year Treasury yield.
At the time of the survey, the yield on the 10-year Treasury stood at 4.28 percent. Chris Fasciano expects the yield to rise to 4.5 percent a year from now, while investment analysts such as Patrick J. O'Hare and Hugh Johnson anticipate a decrease, with O'Hare predicting a modestly lower yield of 4.1 percent and Johnson expecting a fall to 4 percent.
Some analysts, like Jon Brager, foresee the Federal Reserve cutting short-term rates three times, starting in September, which could potentially impact the 10-year Treasury yield. However, most analysts, including Fasciano, expect the Fed to cut short-term rates in 2025, but the central bank is holding tight for now.
The Fed only directly affects short-term interest rates, but its moves play out on longer-term rates such as the 10-year Treasury. The yield on the 10-year Treasury could rise if the Fed moves interest rates too low or too quickly, due to potential inflation.
Michael K. Farr anticipates higher 10-year Treasury yields in a year, at 4.75 percent, while Jon Brager estimates the yield to climb to 4.5 percent in a year's time. On the other hand, Hugh Johnson anticipates the 10-year yield to fall to 4 percent and a lower short-term rate soon.
It is important to note that the survey included analysts such as Sameer Samana, Patrick J. O'Hare, Dec Mullarkey, Chris Fasciano, Hugh Johnson, Kenneth Tower, Michael K. Farr, Jon Brager, Louis Navellier, Sam Stovall, Kim Forrest, and Chuck Carlson. The survey was conducted between June 20-28, 2025, and responses were submitted voluntarily via a website.
However, the predicted 10-year Treasury yield for Q2 2026 from that survey is not available in the current search results. If you have access to the Bankrate website or the full survey report, you might find the exact forecast there.
The editorial disclaimer advises investors to conduct their own independent research into investment strategies before making an investment decision. As always, it is crucial to consider all factors and seek professional advice when making investment decisions.
Investors such as Chris Fasciano are forecasting an increase in the 10-year Treasury yield, predicting it to rise to 4.5 percent a year from now. On the other hand, some analysts, like Hugh Johnson, anticipate a decrease in the 10-year Treasury yield, with a prediction of a fall to 4 percent.
