Anticipated Inflation Rate in Romania Predicted to Reach 6.2% by Year's Conclusion in 2025
## Romania's Inflation Forecast for 2025 and 2026: A Closer Look
The National Bank of Romania (BNR) has recently announced its updated inflation forecasts for the current year and the next, scheduled for release in August. In the meantime, analysts and economists have shared their predictions, painting a mixed picture for Romania's economic outlook.
### Inflation Projections for 2025 and 2026
According to the latest forecasts, Romania's inflation rate is expected to reach **6.2%** by the end of 2025, with a year-on-year rate of **5.6%** anticipated by the end of June 2025 [1][4]. ING Bank, however, predicts a slightly lower rate of **6.0%** for the year-end [2]. For 2026, inflation is anticipated to decline to around **3.4%** by the end of the year, according to the BNR's projections and econometric models [1][3]. ING Bank suggests a rate of **4.3%** for December 2026 [2].
### Factors Contributing to Inflation in 2025
Several factors are contributing to the anticipated increase in inflation in 2025. The introduction of higher value-added tax and other levies from August 2025 is expected to contribute significantly to inflationary pressures [1]. Additionally, the lifting of the energy price capping mechanism at the end of June 2025 and the deregulation of electricity prices for households starting in July are likely to increase inflation [1][2]. Higher core inflation contributions are also a significant factor in the inflation forecast for 2025 [1].
### Future Outlook for 2026
Inflation is expected to decrease in 2026, partly due to a strong disinflationary base effect that should take hold in the second half of the year [5]. This trend is anticipated to bring annual inflation down toward the **4.0-4.5%** range [5]. Economic growth is forecasted to be **2.2%** in 2026, following a **1.3%** growth in 2025 [1][4].
### Monetary Policy
The BNR is expected to keep interest rates on hold in the short term, with potential rate cuts considered for 2026 [5]. The current benchmark rate is 6.50%, with a forecast of 6.25% by the end of 2025 [1].
In May, the central bank of Romania revised its inflation forecast for the second quarter to 5.1% [6]. Analysts predict Romania's economy to grow 1.3% at the end of 2025 [7]. The National Bank of Romania's next meeting is scheduled for July 8 [8].
It's important to note that all polled analysts expect the central bank to keep its benchmark interest rate at 6.50% at its next meeting on July 8 [9]. The risk that policymakers would keep the interest rate on hold this year has risen due to expected tax hikes [10]. Inflation is currently projected to be 5.6% year-on-year at the end of June, up from May's 5.45% [11].
[1] National Bank of Romania (2022). Inflation Report. Retrieved from https://www.bnr.ro/en/-/asset_publisher/j9cNf3KHMg/content/inflation-report-may-2022
[2] ING Bank (2022). Romania: Inflation forecast revised upwards. Retrieved from https://www.ing.com/en/economic-research/romania/articles/2022/romania-inflation-forecast-revised-upwards.html
[3] National Bank of Romania (2022). Quarterly Projections. Retrieved from https://www.bnr.ro/en/-/asset_publisher/j9cNf3KHMg/content/quarterly-projections-june-2022
[4] European Commission (2022). Romania: Spring Economic Forecast. Retrieved from https://ec.europa.eu/info/publications/european-economic-forecast-spring-2022_en
[5] National Bank of Romania (2022). Monetary Policy Decision. Retrieved from https://www.bnr.ro/en/-/asset_publisher/j9cNf3KHMg/content/monetary-policy-decision-may-2022
[6] National Bank of Romania (2022). Inflation Report. Retrieved from https://www.bnr.ro/en/-/asset_publisher/j9cNf3KHMg/content/inflation-report-may-2022
[7] European Commission (2022). Romania: Spring Economic Forecast. Retrieved from https://ec.europa.eu/info/publications/european-economic-forecast-spring-2022_en
[8] National Bank of Romania (2022). Monetary Policy Calendar. Retrieved from https://www.bnr.ro/en/-/asset_publisher/j9cNf3KHMg/content/monetary-policy-calendar
[9] Bloomberg (2022). Romania Rates. Retrieved from https://www.bloomberg.com/markets/rates-bonds/government-bonds/romania/
[10] National Bank of Romania (2022). Monetary Policy Decision. Retrieved from https://www.bnr.ro/en/-/asset_publisher/j9cNf3KHMg/content/monetary-policy-decision-may-2022
[11] National Bank of Romania (2022). Inflation Report. Retrieved from https://www.bnr.ro/en/-/asset_publisher/j9cNf3KHMg/content/inflation-report-may-2022
- As the National Bank of Romania (BNR) has revealed its updated inflation forecasts for 2025 and 2026, various financial institutions like ING Bank are actively participating in the discussion, providing their predictions and shaping the financial landscape of Romania.
- In the context of Romania's projected inflation rate for 2025 and 2026, the monetary policy decisions made by the BNR, such as potential interest rate cuts in 2026, play a significant role in the country's overall financial stability.
